India is expected to consume more energy than the U.S. by the mid-2040s with its consumption reaching second only to China through 2050, the U.S.' Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Thursday.
By the late 2030s, India's economy is projected to surpass the U.S. and the economies of the European countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to become the second-largest economy in the world behind only China, the EIA said in a statement.
The EIA said it estimates that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow from $9 trillion in 2018 to $49 trillion in 2050, -- an average growth rate of more than 5% per year, which is higher than the global average annual growth rate of 3%.
"China and India have been among the world’s fastest-growing economies during much of the past decade, and they remain primary contributors to future growth in world energy demand," the EIA's International Energy Outlook 2019 report read.
The EIA forecasts growth in energy-intensive manufacturing for both countries, but in comparison it expects India’s share in the global manufacturing activity to increase from 11% in 2018 to 25% in 2050. China’s share though is expected to decline from 41% to 35% between those years, the report said.
Over that period, India’s industrial energy consumption is expected to nearly triple, growing from 16 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2018 to 47 quadrillion Btu by 2050 at an average annual rate of 3.4%. This 31 quadrillion Btu of growth is estimated to represent 40% of the world's total increase of 78 quadrillion Btu, it added.
India’s total energy consumption during the same period is forecast to increase from 35 quadrillion Btu to 120 quadrillion Btu, growing from a 6% share of the world's total to 13%, the statement said.
The EIA noted in the statement that it assumes India's economic growth will be more concentrated in manufacturing, adding that, "energy use in India grows at a greater rate because those industries have higher energy intensities."
By Ovunc Kutlu