Global energy consumption could reach 1.08 billion gigajoules by 2100, an increase of 74% from last year, according to projections by The Turkish Energy Strategies and Policies Research Center (TESPAM).
The world consumed 620.5 million gigajoules of energy in 2024.
According to "TESPAM World Energy Outlook 2100" report, China is expected to remain the world's largest energy consumer during this period, although its share of global demand is projected to decline.
India, on the other hand, is forecast to see the fastest growth in energy consumption. The US and the EU are likely to experience more stable or slightly declining energy demands.
The report predicts a global decrease in fossil fuel use, while renewable and nuclear energy are expected to play a larger role.
By 2100, nuclear energy is projected to account for 23.2% of global energy supply, while coal's share is expected to drop to 11.2%.
- Achieving net-zero targets appears unlikely
Despite growth in solar and wind energy, the report suggests that achieving net-zero emission targets may remain out of reach.
Global carbon emissions are expected to fall by 23%, with China making the largest contribution by reducing its emissions by 71%.
The US is projected to cut emissions by 58%, and the EU by 68%.
Conversely, India's emissions are expected to rise by 33%, while emissions in Türkiye are projected to remain steady around 400 million tonnes.
Although fossil fuels will continue to decline in share, the report suggests that their complete phase-out appears unlikely, particularly in developing economies where cost remains a major constraint.
The report identifies nuclear energy as the sector poised for the most significant transformation, with its share in total energy supply expected to remain the highest at 23.2% by 2100.
Renewables are projected to make up 21.4% of total energy, while oil is expected to retain a 25.8% share. Coal's share is predicted to drop sharply from 26.6% to 11.2%, marking the largest decrease.
- Developing countries to drive demand increase
Global energy demand is set to rise, primarily fueled by developing and underdeveloped nations embracing cost-effective but energy-intensive technologies, Oguzhan Akyener, TESPAM president, told Anadolu.
While the US remains the global leader in per capita energy consumption, Akyener noted that emerging economies will inevitably need to scale up their consumption levels to sustain growth, calling it "a necessity rather than a choice."
He also highlighted that ongoing trade tensions between the US and China might dampen global energy demand, while economic slowdowns could stall short-term investment in the sector.
"If adequate investments are not made during economic downturns, the world may face a new energy crisis once the global economy rebounds," Akyener warned.
"When the US loses its economic leadership to China, closing that gap will be increasingly difficult," he added.
Given this outlook, Akyener forecasted that the US will likely intensify pressure on China across multiple sectors. "Unless there is a significant shift in the current dynamics, the global transition to renewable energy could face serious disruptions," he added.
- Türkiye adopts balanced energy strategy
Turning to Türkiye, Akyener stressed the importance of domestic, independent energy development, noting that the country has already made significant progress in this area.
He pointed to Türkiye's 2053 net-zero emissions target, which will require a greater reliance on renewable and nuclear energy.
According to Akyener, this ambition also underpins the formation of a sustainable and competitive trade relationship with the EU.
However, he cautioned that energy transformation is a complex, long-term process that must be managed carefully—something he argued certain European countries have failed to do.
"Germany's decision to phase out nuclear energy and shutter some coal-fired plants while ramping up renewables has led to higher energy costs and weakened its automotive industry against Chinese competitors," he said.
"In contrast, Türkiye has begun tapping into its domestic energy resources. Taken together, these developments suggest that Türkiye is pursuing a more balanced energy strategy than much of Europe—one that is crucial to maintain," Akyener concluded.
By Duygu Alhan and Humeyra Ayaz
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
