Missile attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City have caused extensive damage and fires, fundamentally altering the outlook for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday.
Initial expectations of a two-month disruption are now likely to be exceeded, according to Wood Mackenzie's latest analysis.
A March 18 strike damaged the Pearl GTL facility, while a subsequent attack caused further damage to several LNG plants.
"The full extent of the damage remains under assessment. Qatari LNG production has been halted since March 2, with force majeure declared on March 4, removing about 80 million tons per annum - roughly 19% of global LNG supply - from the market," Wood Mackenzie said.
The North Field East expansion project, expected to add 32 million tons per year, had been scheduled to start in November 2026. The attacks now raise the risk of delays that could reshape global supply growth through 2027 and 2028.
Commenting on the attacks, Kristy Kramer, head of LNG strategy and market development at Wood Mackenzie, said that market expectations had been for a short disruption, with a controlled restart restoring supply to pre-conflict levels by mid-2026.
"That outlook now appears increasingly unlikely," said Kramer. She added that a more prolonged outage would tighten global supply further and keep prices elevated.
Before the attacks, Wood Mackenzie estimated it would take four to six weeks for Qatar to ramp LNG production back to full capacity. That timeline is now expected to lengthen depending on the extent of the damage and required repairs.
By Gulsen Cagatay
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
