As cooling demand and sales continue to rise rapidly in global energy markets, the failure to steer consumer preferences toward the most efficient technologies has prevented massive energy savings, according to a new report.
Data compiled from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and international sources indicates that if all air conditioners sold since 2019 had been of the highest efficiency class, the increasing energy demand of data centers could have been largely offset.
IEA's "Energy Efficiency 2025" report states that cooling continues to be the fastest-growing source of electricity demand in buildings, showing an annual increase of over 4% since 2000.
The report highlights that a large portion of air conditioning demand is met by devices operating far below the highest efficiency levels, primarily due to existing policy standards failing to keep pace with technological advancements.
- Policy gaps and slow efficiency threaten progress
While global energy efficiency progress is set to improve in 2025, IEA warned that countries remain far off track to meet the COP28 goal of doubling annual energy efficiency improvements to 4% by 2030.
IEA estimated that global primary energy intensity – the key measure of efficiency – will improve 1.8% in 2025, up from around 1% in 2024 but still less than half of what is required.
Since 2019, the annual improvement rate has averaged only 1.3%, well below the nearly 2% average during the previous decade.
The report pointed to several structural factors slowing progress. Industry sector, which accounts for two-thirds of global final energy demand growth since 2019, has seen its efficiency improvement fall to under 0.5% per year.
At the same time, policies regulating appliances and equipment continue to lag behind best-available technology, allowing inefficient products to dominate the market.
Electricity demand is also rising two to three times faster than total energy demand, and in many regions insufficient renewable supply has led to increased reliance on inefficient fossil fuel generation, further slowing global intensity gains.
Despite these challenges, global investment in energy-efficient technologies continue to increase. End-use efficiency investment is projected to reach nearly 800 billion dollars in 2025, up around 6% from last year.
Employment in the sector also grew, reaching almost 18 million workers in 2024, though the industry faces persistent labor and skills shortages.
- Efficiency progress remains slow
IEA underscored that efficiency measures remain one of the most effective tools for countries seeking to reduce emissions, enhance energy security and protect consumers from high energy costs.
It noted that without efficiency improvements since 2010, global emissions would be 20% higher today, and that actions since 2000 have avoided the need for 20% more fossil fuel imports in IEA countries.
Governments implemented more than 250 new or updated efficiency policies in 2025, covering countries that together represent over 85% of global energy demand.
IEA stressed that accelerating and strengthening these measures, particularly tightening appliance standards and closing gaps in building and industrial regulations, will be essential to meeting international climate and efficiency targets in the coming decade.
- Global sales to continue rising
The value of air conditioner sales in the global market last year rose by about 4% from the previous year to $30.58 billion, up from $29.51 billion in 2023 according to a report by Market Research Future.
The report estimated that the air conditioner market could exceed $45 billion by 2035.
An annual report by Sustainable Energy for All, an international research organization working in partnership with the UN, noted that 2.4 billion middle-income consumers worldwide are "on the brink" of purchasing the least efficient and most affordable cooling devices.
UNICEF data indicated that by 2030, 500 million people will be exposed to extreme heat for at least 30 days a year. According to UNICEF, the sale of 10 new air conditioners every second through 2050 is expected to place significant additional pressure on power grids.
Estimates of World Air Conditioner Demand report, published in June by the Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association (JRAIA), showed that global air conditioner demand rose 6% last year to 131.6 million units.
China maintained its leadership with 49.7 million units, accounting for 38% of global demand, while Asia was the fastest growing region with 12% growth.
By Humeyra Ayaz
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
