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High gas, power prices could prevail until at least 2025 as energy crisis mounts

- Energy crisis, which started one year ago due to supply demand imbalance post COVID-19 period, exacerbates with Russian war in Ukraine

home > Electricity, Natural Gas 07.09.2022 12:12 Nuran Erkul

High gas, power prices could prevail until at least 2025 as energy crisis mounts

Natural gas and electricity prices in Europe are expected to remain extremely high until at least 2025 as the energy crisis mounts amid supply concerns.

The impacts of the energy crisis first started one year ago, caused by the global economic recovery post-COVID-19 and gas supply and demand imbalances.

The price of futures contracts per megawatt-hour in Europe, trading on the Dutch-based virtual natural gas trading point (TTF), rose from the level of €30 at the beginning of September 2021 to €87 on Feb. 23, one day before Russia started the war in Ukraine.

The price saw a gigantic increase when gas traded at €346 per megawatt-hour last week, marking a 1,000% rise over one year.

As natural gas accounts for almost a quarter of Europe's electricity generation, high gas prices have been reflected in the share of natural gas in Europe's electricity generation.

August was the most expensive month ever for power in Europe on the back of surging gas prices, prompting European policymakers to consider market intervention to safeguard individual consumers and businesses, according to recent research by consultancy Rystad Energy.

'The energy crisis was partly caused by the global economic recovery after the pandemic due to gas supply and demand issues but even before the war started Russian actions were partially responsible for the increase in European Union (EU) gas prices,' Sarah Brown, a senior energy and climate analyst at London-based think tank Ember, told Anadolu Agency.

Brown further explained that Russian energy giant Gazprom strategically did not fill up gas storage facilities that it operated in the EU nor did Russia increase flows through pipelines into the EU when gas demand increased.

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, an energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said in addition to gas supply disruptions from Russia, market uncertainties, low gas storage levels and extreme weather conditions caused an increase in energy demand, along with the emergence of problems in nuclear power generation.

These factors, combined with the impacts of the war, have led to increases in natural gas prices.

Brown noted that the TTF benchmark prices for July-December 2021 averaged €70 per megawatt-hour compared with €11 per megawatt-hour for the same period in 2020.

'Prices peaked on Dec. 23 at €183 per megawatt-hour. So that huge uplift in the prices was not due to the war. However, the war exacerbated the gas crisis and prices rose again to a high of €216 per megawatt-hour in March,' Brown said.

She added that there has been a persistent surge in prices throughout July and August to new highs predominantly due to reduced flows to 20% through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline and the threat of Russian gas being entirely cut off.

TTF prices averaged €136 per megawatt-hour from March to August this year, showing a 370% increase from the €29 per megawatt-hour level over the same period last year.

'European gas prices are expected to remain above €100 per megawatt-hour until at least 2025. This will keep electricity prices high so long as gas continues to set the power prices across Europe,' Brown said.

Jaller-Makarewicz also echoed that prices could stay extremely high for the next 1-2 years. She predicted a slight reduction but said prices would remain high for another five years.

She based this prediction on the long-term unsustainability of Gazprom’s stance on halting gas flows via the Nord Stream 1.

'Gas prices will hit their peak after two years and eventually will start coming down but will keep fluctuating in the coming years,' she said.

Gazprom announced last week that natural gas shipments from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe have been halted indefinitely.


- Solution lies in faster clean transition

Analysts argue that renewables offer a solution to the energy crisis provided countries stick together to achieve ambitious clean energy transition targets and offer concrete solutions to reduce gas demand.

'Europe's key energy policy mistake over the last decade has been to depend on imported fossil gas as a bridging fuel instead of enabling the more rapid deployment of cheaper, cleaner homegrown renewables,' Brown said.

She asserted that lessons have been learned with the EU and member states now taking urgent steps forward in cleaning up their electricity supply.

'The war and energy crisis have acted as catalysts for a much faster transition to renewables. We can see this in policies such as the REPowerEU plan increasing the renewable energy target to 45% and doubling the EU's solar PV capacity by 2025. Now, these goals must be adopted and implemented at the national level across the EU,' Brown urged.

In the REPowerEU plan, the European Commission proposes an increase in the EU's 2030 target for renewables from the current 40% to 45% to bring online over 320 gigawatts of solar PV newly installed by 2025 and almost 600 gigawatts by 2030.

This capacity is estimated to displace the consumption of 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually by 2027.

'Securing clean power by 2035 across Europe is crucial to bring down electricity bills, improve energy security and reduce emissions. Temporary emergency measures being taken now to secure energy supply must not, and will not, derail the EU's climate commitments,' Brown said, noting that EU countries are taking steps to reduce total gas consumption by 15% over the next seven months.

She said the effort to reduce fossil fuel demand will continue well beyond this winter.

Jaller-Makarewicz noted that energy transition goals are at risk due to increases in coal power production and LNG imports.

'REPowerEU plan has indicated ambitious targets to handle the energy crisis, but issues could arise when countries do not stick together. Also, there is a risk that countries will focus on solving the energy supply issues by increasing gas infrastructure and do not put great effort into reducing gas consumption before winter months,' she said.

Thus, Jaller-Makarewicz urged governments to now offer concrete and concise solutions to reduce or replace gas and power consumption.

She touted the option of deploying a massive program to install heat pumps to replace gas boilers used for cooking and heating at homes.

By Nuran Erkul Kaya

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr


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Spot market electricity prices for Thursday, April 17

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.73 billion Turkish liras
17.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 0.03% on April 15

- Electricity exports amount to 12,397 megawatt-hours and imports total 9,884 megawatt-hours
16.04.2025 Electricity

EU power, auto groups call for grid upgrades to meet truck electrification goals

- Eurelectric and European Automobile Manufacturers' Association outlines 7 policy recommendations to accelerate adoption of zero-emission vehicles
16.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Wednesday, April 16

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.9 billion Turkish liras
15.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 16.1% on April 14

- Electricity exports amount to 12,735 megawatt-hours and imports total 9,460 megawatt-hours
15.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Tuesday, April 15

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 2.3 billion Turkish liras
14.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 12.7% on April 13

- Electricity exports amount to 11,485 megawatt-hours and imports total 12,867 megawatt-hours
15.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Monday, April 14

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.95 billion Turkish liras
14.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 4.5% on April 12

- Electricity exports amount to 11,178 megawatt-hours and imports total 12,359 megawatt-hours
14.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Sunday, April 13

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.36 billion Turkish liras
13.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 2.3% on April 11

- Electricity exports amount to 10,098 megawatt-hours and imports total 12,474 megawatt-hours
13.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Saturday, April 12

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.68 billion Turkish liras
11.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 0.8% on April 10

- Electricity exports amount to 11,889 megawatt-hours and imports total 10,497 megawatt-hours
12.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Friday, April 11

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.95 billion Turkish liras
10.04.2025 Electricity

AI to quadruple data center electricity demand by 2030: IEA

-'Global electricity demand from data centers is set to more than double over the next five years,' says IEA chief Fatih Birol
11.04.2025 Electricity

Trump seeks to revive coal industry and reverse long-term decline with new orders

- Trump's new coal orders aim to revive industry, but data shows US coal production and use are hitting historic lows
10.04.2025 Coal

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 1.8% on April 9

- Electricity exports amount to 10,889 megawatt-hours and imports total 6,368 megawatt-hours
10.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Thursday, April 10

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.96 billion Turkish liras
09.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 4.4% on April 8

- Electricity exports amount to 12,072 megawatt-hours and imports total 5,651 megawatt-hours
10.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Wednesday, April 9

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.89 billion Turkish liras
08.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 19.5% on April 7

- Electricity exports amount to 11,291 megawatt-hours and imports total 5,696 megawatt-hours
08.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Tuesday, April 8

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.98 billion Turkish liras
08.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 9.3% on April 6

- Electricity exports amount to 12,601 megawatt-hours and imports total 6,633 megawatt-hours
08.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Monday, April 7

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.52 billion Turkish liras
06.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 2.8% on April 5

- Electricity exports amount to 10,960 megawatt-hours and imports total 7,006 megawatt-hours
06.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Sunday, April 6

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 909.15 million Turkish liras
07.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 1.3% on April 4

- Electricity exports amount to 10,525 megawatt-hours and imports total 4,686 megawatt-hours
05.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria and Georgia signs MoU for "Green Electricity Transmission and Trade Project"

- Once project is implemented, transmission systems will be modernized, production infrastructure will operate more efficiently, and energy security will increase, Türkiye's energy minister said
05.04.2025 Electricity , Finance , Energy Diplomacy

Türkiye, Azerbaijan signs "Operating Agreement" in electricity sector

- Agreement will ensure uninterrupted, reliable electricity transmission between Türkiye and Nakhchivan, while also bringing modernization of existing infrastructure, increasing capacity
05.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Saturday, April 5

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.39 billion Turkish liras
04.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 7.5% on April 3

- Electricity exports amount to 10,289 megawatt-hours and imports total 5,089 megawatt-hours
04.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Friday, April 4

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.48 billion Turkish liras
03.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's electricity generation from renewables reaches nearly half of total production in Q1 2025

- Electricity generation in the first three months of 2025 reached a total of 86.5 million MWh, with 35 MWh coming from renewable sources
04.04.2025 Electricity , Renewable , Finance

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 22.2% on April 2

- Electricity exports amount to 10,821 megawatt-hours and imports total 3,192 megawatt-hours
03.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Thursday, April 3

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.47 billion Turkish liras
02.04.2025 Electricity

Int. Energy Agency says energy innovation slowing despite potential

-'We require investment, both public and private, to scale up innovative solutions,' says Fatih Birol, head of IEA
03.04.2025 Electricity , Oil , Renewable , Finance

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 9.6% on April 1

- Electricity exports amount to 14,135 megawatt-hours and imports total 2,464 megawatt-hours
03.04.2025 Electricity

Syria plunged into darkness by nationwide power outage

- Authorities scramble to fix technical glitch as blackout grips country
02.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Wednesday, April 2

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.43 billion Turkish liras
01.04.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 0.6% on March 31

- Electricity exports amount to 10,793 megawatt-hours and imports total 3,030 megawatt-hours
02.04.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Tuesday, April 1

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 681 million Turkish liras
31.03.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 15.56% on March 30

- Electricity exports amount to 12,529 megawatt-hours and imports total 3,135 megawatt-hours
31.03.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Monday, March 31

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 897 million Turkish liras
30.03.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 18.05% on March 29

- Electricity exports amount to 13,467 megawatt-hours and imports total 2,747 megawatt-hours
31.03.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Sunday, March 30

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 821 million Turkish liras
29.03.2025 Electricity

Hydropower's role expands amid soaring global electricity demand

- Electricity demand is growing at its fastest rate, with a projected increase of 3,500 terawatt-hours between 2025 and 2027
31.03.2025 Electricity , Hydro
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