Energy efficiency deployment in Turkey could save the equivalent electricity consumption of 18 million households in 2030, according to a new report published by Istanbul-based SHURA Energy Transition Center on Tuesday.
The report, titled The Most Economical Solution for Turkey's Power System: Energy Efficiency and Business Models was carried out based on two scenarios, Baseline and SHURA, in which the extent of energy-efficient deployment technologies differ.
The Baseline scenario is based on Turkey's Electricity Demand Projections Report prepared by the Energy and Natural Resources Ministry, while the SHURA scenario assesses the potential of energy efficiency across 21 electricity end-use areas and accounts for an accelerated deployment of energy efficiency technologies, which would be enabled by the implementation of the proposed energy efficiency solutions.
According to the SHURA scenario, with the deployment of energy efficiency technologies, Turkey's total annual electricity demand in 2030 reduces to 416.9 terawatt-hours (TWh) down from the Baseline scenario of 459.2 TWh.
Net savings in electricity demand amounts to 42.3 TWh, equivalent to the electricity demand of 18 million households or the combined electricity consumption of textiles and basic metal industries in Turkey.
"Most of these savings will be achieved through technology and measures to increase energy efficiency. Additionally, significant gains can be achieved through methods such as energy management systems and the optimization of energy consumption on the demand side," the report said.
According to the report, 82% of the total energy savings in 2030 would be lower than the foreseen electricity tariff in the same year.
"Energy efficiency technologies that cost less than the electricity tariff stands out as lighting, industrial heating and cooling, variable speed drive applications, distributed production technologies, equipment and process improvements in electric arc furnaces and more efficient applications in the cement sector," the report highlighted.
- Electricity generation-related CO2 emission growth could be limited to 5% over next 10 years
In the SHURA scenario, the annual CO2 emissions in the electricity sector reduce by 25.1 million tonnes in 2030, compared to the Baseline scenario, which means limiting the growth in CO2 emissions of the electricity sector to 5% compared to 2018 levels of 150 million tonnes.
The savings potential determined in the SHURA scenario reduces demand for electricity generated from natural gas by almost half as well as reducing the dependence on imported coal by 10% by 2030, compared to the Baseline scenario.
While natural gas consumption in power plants declines to 8.7 billion cubic meters with a decrease in electricity demand in the SHURA scenario, this reduction is estimated to provide about $2.4 billion by 2030.
The coal consumption of power plants in 2030 decreases by 3% to 108.2 million tonnes under the SHURA scenario, while with the savings from the reduced dependence on imported coal, the total benefit is equivalent to $2.7 billion per year.
- Domestic resources should be used for efficiency investments
The SHURA scenario is estimated to create an investment need of $54 billion in the 2020-2030 period, including $30 billion for energy efficiency, $11 billion for distributed energy resources, and $13 billion for electrification, including heat pumps.
In particular, according to the report, these investments will certainly play a big role in reducing dependence on foreign trade of manufactured technologies and equipment, allowing them to be produced in Turkey.
"The increase in investments and domestic production will be reflected as new opportunities for employment. Procuring the necessary technologies and services for an industry with more renewable energy shares and increasing energy efficiency will carry the current employment levels up,” the report said.
Turkey's export potential will be supported by the industrial sector providing a much cleaner source of energy, lower costs and fewer emissions in the value chain of products on the market, it added.
Moreover, according to the report, in addition to economic benefits, energy efficiency will also contribute greatly to the reduction of air pollutant emissions to which a high proportion of Turkey's population is exposed.
By Firdevs Yuksel and Nuran Erkul Kaya