Lithuania aims to export net electricity by 2030, however the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns rapid grid upgrades are vital.
According to the IEA's latest report titled "Lithuania 2025", the strategy marks a sharp departure from Lithuania’s historic dependence on imported fossil fuels, particularly from Russia.
Electricity demand is projected to rise sixfold by 2050, with half used for producing hydrogen and its derivatives. The transformation is central to Lithuania’s National Energy Independence Strategy (NEIS), updated in 2024, which sets out goals for energy security, climate neutrality, industrial growth, and affordability.
The IEA warned, however, that Lithuania remains highly reliant on fossil fuels. In 2023, oil covered 41% of the total energy supply, and transport alone consumed 75% of oil products.
Despite doubling electricity generation over two years, Lithuania still falls short of its 2030 renewables targets: 4.5 GW of onshore wind, 4.1 GW of solar, and 1.4 GW of offshore wind. An offshore wind auction in 2024 was cancelled due to a lack of bids - a signal of investor uncertainty.
According to the IEA, to meet future demand, Lithuania must rapidly modernize its grid.
The IEA called for anticipatory investment, reforms to net metering, and new price signals to unlock flexibility. Without faster permitting and stronger incentives, grid congestion could slow the deployment of renewables.
Lithuania fully ceased Russian energy imports in 2022 and synchronized with the Continental European power grid in February 2025 - ten months ahead of schedule. The disconnection involved €1.23 billion in EU-backed infrastructure upgrades, including 420 km of new lines and 200 MW of battery storage.
"Yet challenges remain," the IEA noted, adding that success will depend on timely reforms, investor confidence, and infrastructure delivery.
By Murat Temizer
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr