US President Donald Trump's executive actions aimed at reviving the coal sector sparked debate in global energy markets, but data shows coal's share in the US energy mix continues to shrink.
Coal is steadily losing ground in the US energy landscape, despite political efforts to support the industry, according to data by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and global energy think tank Ember.
On April 8, Trump signed a series of executive orders promoting coal production and rolling back environmental concerns in a ceremony at the White House. The move was positioned as a direct reversal of former President Joe Biden and the Democrats' efforts to phase out coal over the past four years.
However, current projections from the EIA show a continued downward trajectory for the sector in both production and consumption.
The US coal production fell by 3.3% in 2024 year-on-year to about 464 million tons and is expected to drop further to around 438 million tons in 2025, marking one of the lowest annual outputs since the 1970s.
This decline is largely driven by the growing share of natural gas and renewables energy in electricity generation, along with the retirement of aging coal-fired power plants.
Natural gas, solar, and wind power dominated electricity generation in 2024 to meet rising demand, gradually replacing coal.
During daylight hours, solar energy displaced coal more significantly, particularly in the summer months. Natural gas also outcompeted coal throughout much of the year due to its lower price in many regions.
Coal's share in US electricity generation fell to 15% in 2024, down from 16% in 2023, with the EIA projecting it will drop below 15% by 2025.
In contrast, coal accounted for 52% of total electricity generation in 2000.
- Exports also set to decline
US coal exports stood at 92.5 million tons in 2024, but are expected to dip to 88 million tons this year due to factors such as weaker global demand, a strong US dollar, and China's import tariff policies.
Despite the Trump administration's pledges to boost energy exports, coal is steadily losing competitiveness in global markets.
Experts say the latest orders could bring short-term momentum to the coal sector. Yet current data and long-term projections indicate the industry's structural decline will continue.
Natural gas and renewables are gaining market share due to their cost competitiveness, environmental regulations, and evolving market dynamics, all of which are reshaping the future of coal in the US energy mix.
- Trump's coal orders
During the signing ceremony, Trump accused Democrats of trying to destroy the coal industry over the past four years, calling the Democratic green agenda a 'hoax' that kills jobs and drives up prices.
He also highlighted China's continued reliance on coal, claiming the country is opening two new coal plants every week. Trump said other nations are similarly returning to coal, and his orders would remove 'unnecessary regulations' that hinder clean coal development.
The orders aim to guarantee that coal operations cannot be shut down, accelerate coal mining leases, and simplify permitting processes.
Trump downplayed concerns over global warming, stating that the real threat is 'nuclear warming,' not climate change.
By Murat Temizer
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr