Global natural gas production is expected to increase by around 32%, or 1.3 trillion cubic meters compared to 2022, to 5.3 trillion cubic meters in 2050, according to the 2050 Outlook report of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
Increasing gas demand from global markets is the main driver of the production increase, the report shows.
Natural gas production is expected to experience annual growth of 1.4% through 2030, but will decline to 1.1% in the 2030s and 0.5% annually in the 2040s.
While natural gas production was around 4 trillion cubic meters in global markets in 2022, significant changes were observed in regional gas production. The Middle East and North America increased their gas production capacities, although relatively modest growth was seen in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe.
While Latin America's production remained stable, Africa recorded a slight fall in gas production, but a significant decrease was recorded in Eurasian gas production levels.
Gas production in the Middle East increased by 2.2%, from 670 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 685 billion cubic meters in 2022, with Iran and Saudi Arabia leading this growth. The Middle East contributed 17% to global natural gas production in 2022.
Similarly, North America experienced a 6% increase in gas production, from 1 trillion 160 billion cubic meters to 1 trillion 230 billion cubic meters. The US, in particular the shale gas that was mined from the area, was the primary driver of this increase.
North America was the region with the largest share in global gas production, with a share of 30.6%.
In the Asia Pacific region, gas production also increased by approximately 12 billion cubic meters to reach 650 billion cubic meters in 2022, reflecting an annual growth of 1.8%. China led this increase and contributed an additional 11 billion cubic meters.
Europe's production also increased by 3.8% to 213 billion cubic meters, accounting for 5.3% of the world’s gas production. The increased production in Europe was attributed to the boost in production in Norway and the UK, which more than compensated for the significant decline observed in the Netherlands.
Eurasia recorded the largest contraction in natural gas production, with a decrease of 90 billion cubic meters, corresponding to 9.7%, resulting in a total production of 835 billion cubic meters in 2022. The primary cause of this reduction was the downturn in Russian gas production, which was impacted by geopolitical issues related to pipeline gas imports from Europe. Eurasia accounted for 20.7% of the global natural gas production market in 2022.
- Middle East holds majority of gas reserves
According to GECF and Cedigaz data, total global proven natural gas reserves amounted to 205 trillion cubic meters.
The Middle East dominates the global gas market, with the largest reserves of 83 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Eurasia follows with 66 trillion cubic meters. The Middle East and Eurasia together constitute 73% of the world's gas reserves.
Natural gas reserves displayed a steady increase from 1980 to 2011, and this trend continued up to 2022.
The increase in reserves up to 2022 was attributed to increased investments in exploration and production, along with technological advances that facilitated the exploitation of previously inaccessible gas fields, especially in difficult environments such as deep-water areas.
Additionally, the development of more sensitive exploration technologies has significantly contributed to the accurate identification of gas fields.
In the period between 1980 and 2014, there was a massive increase in natural gas expenditure, from $21 billion in 1980 to $285 billion in 2014.
When both conventional and unconventional resources are taken into account, the total volume discovered between 2010 and 2022 hit 36 trillion cubic meters, exceeding the cumulative global natural gas production between 2010 and 2019. However, only 18 trillion cubic meters of this natural gas volume have been developed and put into production.
By Murat Temizer
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
