It is estimated that global coal demand will increase by a slight 1% in 2025, despite the short-term fluctuations across several major markets in the first half of the year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global coal demand hit a new record with 8.8 billion tonnes in 2024, a 1.5% increase compared to 2023, according to IEA's Coal Mid Year Update report.
The increase in demand was fueled by higher consumption in China, India, Indonesia and other developing economies, though demand declined in developed economies in Europe, North America and Northeast Asia.
In the first half of 2025, China and India's coal demand was reduced due to weak growth in electricity demand and robust growth in generation from sustainable sources in these countries.
Meanwhile, coal usage in the US increased by 10% on an annual basis during this period, as electricity consumption and increasing natural gas prices triggered coal usage.
In the European Union (EU), low consumption from industrial sources balanced higher demand from electricity production and overall coal demand remained a plateau.
Despite short-term fluctuations, global coal demand is projected to rise modestly by 1% this year, before declining by nearly 1% in 2026—bringing demand to just below record levels seen in 2024.
Over the whole of 2025, coal demand in China is expected to decline slightly, by less than 1%. It is estimated that demand will rise in the US by 7%, while in the EU it will fall back by nearly 2%.
In his assessment of the report, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori stated that despite contrasting trends in different regions in the first half of 2025, these do not alter the underlying trajectory of global coal demand.
"We expect the world's coal consumption to remain broadly flat this year and next, in line with our previous forecast, although short-term fluctuations remain possible in different regions due to weather conditions and the high degree of economic and geopolitical uncertainty," he said.
"As in past years, global coal trends continue to be shaped overwhelmingly by China, which consumes almost 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined," he added.
Reporting by Nuran Erkul in London
Writing by Busra Ozaltan
Anadolu Agency
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