A significant liquefied natural gas (LNG) surplus is expected in 2026 as new exporters and capacity expansions ramp up, a development that is likely to put downward pressure on global gas prices, according to energy experts.
Projections from international energy bodies point to strong LNG growth next year, with new liquefaction plants coming online in the US, Qatar, Canada, Mexico and several African countries.
The commissioning of these projects is expected to add more than 40 million tons per year of new liquefaction capacity in 2026, with further increases anticipated through 2030.
How this additional capacity is absorbed — via new routes, pricing dynamics and import decisions — will shape global gas trade. Since the Russia-Ukraine war, the EU has sharply reduced its dependence on Russian pipeline gas in favor of US LNG, while China has increased Russian pipeline imports and cut back its overall LNG purchases.
Experts say the new LNG wave will intensify competition and drive prices lower, prompting buyers to seek cheaper and more flexible gas supply options.
- 2026 LNG surge set to be strongest in a decade
Wael Hamed Abdel Moati, global gas markets expert at the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), said global LNG supply is projected to rise sharply in 2026 to around 470 million tons, from roughly 428 million tons in 2025.
This double-digit increase of about 10% would mark one of the strongest annual supply gains in more than a decade.
Moati said the jump will be driven by major new capacity in the US — including Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Plaquemines LNG — alongside Qatar’s North Field East expansion, Canada’s LNG Canada project, Mexico’s Costa Azul LNG and new volumes from African exporters.
"Together, these projects represent one of the largest annual supply additions in recent years," he noted.
- Spot prices to ease toward $10 per MMBtu
Moati cautioned that the outlook depends heavily on the actual start-up dates of these megaprojects, noting that large LNG developments often face commissioning delays that could trim effective supply growth.
If ramp-ups proceed broadly as scheduled, he said the wave of new capacity will "materially ease global market balances," shifting conditions from the tightness of recent years to a more comfortable supply environment with greater availability of flexible, destination-free cargoes.
He added that this supply growth is expected to weigh on LNG spot prices, with both the JKM Asian benchmark and Europe’s TTF hub likely to move toward around $10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) as additional US volumes narrow regional price spreads.
- Surplus seen as unavoidable, buyers push for flexibility
Robert Songer, LNG markets analyst at ICIS, said forecasters broadly agree that a substantial LNG surplus is building as a “massive wave” of new liquefaction capacity comes to market.
"Whether this developing oversupply lands fully in 2026 or spills over into 2027 is currently less certain, since plant startup delays have now been made public," he said, but stressed that the "math of the surplus is inescapable."
Songer underlined the scale of the expansion, noting that Qatar alone plans to increase output from 77 million tons per annum (mtpa) today to 142 mtpa by the end of the decade, while the US is in the midst of a major multi-plant build-out that will "add many more millions of tons of capacity."
He said the investment wave assumes continued demand growth, but trends on the ground are more complex. China, the world’s biggest LNG importer in 2024, has "drastically cut imports in 2025," while Japan and South Korea are mature markets with limited upside. Europe has sharply increased LNG purchases, but the durability of that extra demand remains uncertain.
"This places a big onus on newer importers in Asia to step up imports. Whether this happens or not is likely to depend on to what extent prices drop," Songer warned.
On long-term contracts, he said an oversupplied market will likely embolden buyers to seek more favorable terms, including shorter-duration agreements and "other kinds of flexibility," especially given that a significant portion of upcoming export capacity appears to be still uncontracted.
By Fuat Kabakci
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
