Despite a global pledge by over 130 countries at the COP28 UN climate conference to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, most have yet to align national plans with the goal, according to a new analysis by London-based energy think tank Ember.
Since COP28 in 2023, only 22 countries, mostly in the EU, have updated their national climate targets, resulting in just a 2% increase in global renewable energy ambition over two years, Ember said in its latest report.
Collectively, current national targets amount to 7.4 terawatts (TW) of renewable energy capacity by 2030, just over double the 3.4 TW installed in 2022. That still falls far short of the 11 TW needed to meet the tripling goal agreed at COP28, leaving a 3.7 TW gap, it added.
"While some countries may still be in the process of updating their targets, the opportunity for impactful near-term action is narrowing rapidly," Ember warned, ahead of the COP30 UN climate summit to be held later this year in Brazil.
"Without immediate and ambitious revisions and robust implementation, the world risks missing the 2030 milestone to triple renewable energy capacity," it added.
Aligning national ambition with the global pledge can help attract investment, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and accelerate progress toward secure, affordable and clean energy systems, it noted.
Among the top 20 electricity-producing nations, national targets have largely remained unchanged. While countries such as the US and Russia have yet to announce national plans, India's goal of building 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 is aligned with the global tripling target.
China is in the final stages of drafting its 15th Five-Year Plan for energy, which is expected to include a 2030 renewable energy target, though details remain unclear.
The gap between global ambition and national planning "risks undermining not only climate progress but also energy security and economic resilience of countries." Ember warned.
- 'We need actual capacity installed by 2030'
Speaking to Anadolu, Katye Altieri, global electricity analyst at Ember, said the purpose of national renewable energy targets is not just to mandate more renewables, but to ensure they are built smarter.
"It can help the government plan for the best place to build renewables and plan for grid and flexibility to integrate the renewables, and also to help companies invest in supply chains, making for a cheaper and more secure electricity system," Altieri said.
"It seems there is a disconnect between countries pledging to global commitments like the tripling pledge and translating that into national-level commitments, because so few countries have set targets in response," she added. "It's almost as if signing the pledge is seen as sufficient."
Altieri emphasized the need for stated ambition backed by implementation tools like storage, grid support and flexible systems. "If we want to meet global tripling by 2030, we are halfway through the decade."
"It is important to have stated ambition so implementation can be done logically and supported by the right policies, storage, grid support, flexibility, so we can actually achieve a tripling of renewables, not just targets for the sake of targets," she said.
"We do not just need targets that say 2030 but we need actual capacity installed by 2030," she noted.
"Targets help by creating investment certainty and enabling a planning process so everything else can move forward toward achieving global tripling," she added.
She also noted that while renewable deployment is accelerating in many regions, "but there is a disconnect between ambition and action."
Altieri underscored the importance of the UN climate process, calling the COP28 tripling pledge "an important moment" and highlighting the COP29 focus on grids and storage as a critical follow-up.
"Hopefully, COP30 will continue dialogue on other aspects critical to the energy transition," she added.
Reporting by Nuran Erkul in London
Writing by Handan Kazanci
Anadolu Agency
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