Solar and wind energy grew fast enough to meet all new electricity demand in the first three quarters of 2025, UK-based think tank Ember said Thursday, forecasting no rise in fossil fuel generation this year for the first stagnation since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Ember's Q3 Global Power Report found that renewables are no longer just keeping pace with demand, they're now growing faster.
Solar output rose by 498 terawatt-hours (TWh), or 31%, during the same period, already surpassing its total generation for all of 2024, the report stated. Wind generation increased by 137 TWh, or 7.6%. Combined, the two added 635 TWh, outpacing the 603 TWh rise in global electricity demand.
Solar and wind provided 17.6% of global electricity in the first three quarters of 2025, up from 15.2% in the same period last year, lifting the total share of low-carbon sources to 43%.
Fossil fuels supplied 57.1% of global electricity, down from 58.7% a year earlier. So far in 2025, renewables, including solar, wind, hydropower, bioenergy and smaller sources such as geothermal, have generated more electricity than coal.
According to the report, fossil output slipped by 0.1% (-17 TWh) during the same period. Ember forecasts no growth in fossil generation for the full year, marking the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic that fossil power has not increased despite rising electricity demand.
The shift is driven in part by falls in fossil generation in China and India, which offset small increases in the EU and US, the report added.
In China, fossil generation fell by 52 TWh (-1.1%) as clean power met all new demand, signaling a structural shift in the country's electricity system, the report noted. In India, fossil generation declined by 34 TWh (-3.3%), driven by record solar and wind growth and mild weather that slowed demand.
Together, the two markets tipped the global balance and anchored the first year of fossil stagnation since the pandemic.
- Solar becomes main driver of change in global power sector
The report said solar power has become the main driver of change in the global power sector, with growth more than three times higher than any other source of electricity in the first three quarters of 2025.
According to the report, weather is another key factor behind the global shift. Electricity demand rose by 2.7%, down from a 4.9% increase in the same period in 2024. Unlike last year, when extreme heatwaves drove up cooling needs across China, India and the US, 2025 saw milder conditions that helped temper demand growth.
The 2025 data suggests clean power has entered a new phase, Ember said. For the first time, outside major disruptions such as the Covid-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis, growth in clean sources has not only kept pace with global electricity demand but surpassed it.
The next stage will depend on how consistently the trend can be sustained, as continued clean power expansion will determine whether fossil generation holds steady or begins to decline, it added.
Commenting on the report, Nicolas Fulghum, senior data analyst at Ember, said that fossil power, historically a growth segment, now appears to be entering a period of stagnation and managed decline.
"China, the largest source of fossil growth, has turned a corner, signaling that reliance on fossil fuels to meet growing power demand is no longer required," Fulghum added.
By Handan Kazanci
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
