Global hydropower development is entering a renewed phase of growth, driven by the rising demand for system flexibility amid record levels of solar and wind generation, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Renewables 2025 report.
The report forecasts that hydropower electricity generation will rise by about 7% between 2025 and 2030, primarily through new projects in emerging and developing economies.
However, hydropower's share in global electricity generation is expected to edge down to 14% by 2030, while its share of total renewable generation will fall to 30%, continuing a two-decade decline from more than 80%.
Despite this relative decline, total hydropower capacity is projected to expand by over 154 gigawatts (GW) during 2025-2030, slightly higher than in the previous five years, with pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) leading this new phase of growth.
IEA underlines that hydropower remains essential for providing dispatchable, flexible power as renewables' share in the global mix increases.
Annual PSH additions are expected to double to 16.5 GW by 2030, while total new installations could surpass 36 GW, marking a 40% increase over last year's forecast. PHS additions already outpaced conventional hydropower in 2023 and 2024, a shift driven by the growing need to balance variable renewable generation.
- China leads global pumped-storage boom
China will account for more than 60% of global PSH expansion, supported by large-scale grid investments and the rapid rollout of solar and wind power.
In Europe, deployment is accelerating in Spain and Austria, while India and Asia is advancing new PSH projects to strengthen grid reliability and energy access.
Large conventional hydropower projects continue to progress across developing regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, flagship initiatives are boosting generation capacity and enabling cross-border electricity trade.
In Latin America, hydropower remains the dominant renewable source despite the rise of solar PV, with Colombia's 2.4 GW Ituango project standing out among major developments.
IEA emphasizes that hydropower, particularly PSH, will play an expanding role in maintaining grid stability as variable renewables rise to nearly two-thirds of global renewable electricity generation by 2030.
Renewables 2025 outlook shows that solar PV will represent around 80% of all new renewable capacity by 2030. Wind power is also set for substantial growth, with onshore installations increasing 45% over the next five years despite supply chain pressures.
Meanwhile, bioenergy and geothermal continue to provide critical dispatchable capacity, with geothermal additions projected to triple by 2030, led by projects in the US, Indonesia, Japan, Türkiye, Kenya, and the Philippines.
Together with hydropower, these technologies will underpin system flexibility as renewables' share in global electricity generation rises from 32% in 2024 to 43% by 2030, according to the IEA.
By Humeyra Ayaz
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
