Trillions of dollars must be shifted from fossil fuels to renewable energy to address climate change, but the current global political environment is constraining finance and slowing climate action, according to the head of Climate Analytics, a global climate science and policy institute engaged worldwide in supporting climate action aligned to the 1.5°C warming limit.
The CEO of Climate Analytics, Bill Hare, told Anadolu on the sidelines of the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belem, that global mitigation efforts remain far from sufficient.
Citing scientific assessments such as the Climate Action Tracker and the UN Environment Program (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report, he said the world still faces a "very big emissions gap" that has not closed over the past four to five years.
"The new 2035 targets don't close the gap. In fact, it gets bigger," he said, stressing that urgent action is needed to meet global climate goals.
According to UNEP, fully implementing countries' current climate pledges would result in 2.3-2.5°C of warming by the end of the century, while sticking only to existing policies would raise temperatures by up to 2.8°C.
The Climate Action Tracker's latest analysis also shows that current 2030 and 2035 climate targets would still lead to around 2.6°C of warming, meaning the new 2035 pledges do not bring the world any closer to limiting warming to 1.5°C.
Hare recalled that the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement, concluded at COP28 in 2023, outlined a range of ambitious energy measures, including tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency by 2030, and reducing methane emissions. "There needs to be decisions here at COP30 to basically agree to implement what was agreed upon a few years ago, which has not been done," he said.
- Political barriers and fossil fuel pressure delay action
When asked why countries are submitting less ambitious national climate plans, Hare pointed to political rather than structural barriers.
"Renewable energy is so cheap now. Electric vehicles are getting cheaper. They are really key technologies," he explained, adding that pressure from fossil fuel companies continues to slow progress in many countries.
Hare said the issue is not limited to a single country, noting that the US faced major challenges under President Donald Trump and that serious difficulties are also emerging in Asia. "Even in historical leaders like the European Union, politicians are backing down in the face of pressure from the gas industry," he noted.
He also highlighted the human and economic impacts of inaction.
"If we don't stop climate change from happening, ordinary people will be exposed to severe damage and deadly heat. People who work outdoors throughout much of the tropical belt will be unable to do so in a decade or two, as daytime temperatures become too high. Extreme floods, storms, and other severe weather events will make houses and businesses uninsurable, raising the cost of living," he said.
- Urgent need to shift 'trillions' to renewables
On financing the energy transition, Hare said: "It's actually trillions we need to switch into renewable energy. The key point people need to understand is that the world would need to spend trillions anyway to build an energy system that provides sufficient power to those who currently lack it. What we are talking about is switching those investments away from fossil fuels towards renewables, and that's called 'switching the trillions.'"
He noted that investment is starting to shift toward renewables, but "it's not broad enough. There are places where that investment switch is happening, and there are places where it is not. And it is often where it is most badly needed that it is not happening."
Hare stressed that COP30 can play a role in unlocking finance for poorer countries. "Politicians here… can make decisions that get their national development guarantee banks, export guarantee facilities, and their board members on multilateral development banks to do the right thing and change the rules so that countries can invest in clean tech. That’s one big thing that will switch investments," he said.
The discussion on climate finance at COP30 follows last year's COP29 in Azerbaijan, which produced the "Baku-to-Belem Roadmap." The plan aims to mobilize $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 from public and private sources. The roadmap emphasizes the need for more grants and concessional capital, measures to expand fiscal space and ensure debt sustainability, affordable private finance, stronger coordination, and systemic reforms to direct investments toward climate goals.
Despite these opportunities, Hare acknowledged he is not optimistic about major progress at COP30, describing the global political situation as extremely challenging.
"We find ourselves at a very difficult moment in history. Everyone talks about the geopolitical crisis," he said, citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Trump's moves against the international rules-based order, and rising tensions between the US and China in East Asia.
"All these are creating a bit of a cloud over politics, to put it mildly," Hare added, noting that one of the challenges at COP30 is whether political leaders can take a long-term view, recognizing that failing to act on climate change now would lead to far worse consequences in the future and require urgent measures.
By Firdevs Yuksel in Belem, Brazil
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
