By Barry Eitel
SAN FRANCISCO
Twitter activity surrounding television shows premiering last fall was related to audience size, according to a report published Monday by Neilsen, a global leader in television audience measurement.
There is plenty of money at stake when it comes to predicting television success. Advertisers have to bet on what people will be watching long in advance of season premiers. Once the unofficial holiday of fall television season begins, networks and agencies desire real-time feedback of what people are watching.
Neilsen asked if Twitter could forecast a successful premier in a concrete, data-based manner. Looking at 42 broadcast and cable premiers between August and November of English and Spanish language shows, the company saw a link between chatter on the social media site and actual audience.
“Twitter TV activity did prove out as an additional signal that could be used together with other factors to anticipate premiere audience sizes,” Neilsen wrote Monday in a blog post. “This is notable because if Twitter TV activity could be used along side other data sources to help determine TV audiences, then [advertising] agencies could fine-tune their buys before the premieres.”
Neilsen found that Twitter could be an important too –and the company has actual data to back up the claim.
“Networks could identify potential winners and challenges earlier to maximize ad sales and course-correct marketing activities,” Neilsen continued. “And, to the extent that social media leads people to become aware of new shows, networks could leverage Twitter TV activity to better reach their intended audiences.”
While Neilsen did not find an exact reflection of a premier’s audience size in its Twitter activity, the two were directionally aligned.
Neilsen admits that the data set is limited and proclaiming a causal relation between audience size and Twitter activity would be a leap, analyzing data gleaned from the social network could lead networks to a more profound understanding of what people are excited to see.
