- As Israeli expansionism and American interventionism push the region toward a conflict with no clear deadline, the importance of alternative supply chains is no longer a theoretical debate; it is a matter of economic survival

- The author is a researcher at TRT World Research Centre in Istanbul.

ISTANBUL

The words in the title were first used by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the 2023 G-20 Summit. When the IMEC (India-Middle Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) was introduced via a Memorandum of Understanding, pointedly bypassing Turkish territories, President Erdogan made it clear that a regional map without Türkiye is unsustainable. Today, as the escalation between Iran and Israel engulfs the wider region, the severe security risks haunting the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and traditional overland routes are proving this statement. Amid this atmosphere of pervasive instability, Türkiye stands as a vital hub, offering the Middle Corridor and the Development Road Project as the only robust, realistic alternatives for sustaining global trade.

The Iran-Israel tension, a cornerstone of Middle Eastern geopolitics for decades, has entered a period of violent escalation following the launch of the US-led Operation Epic Fury. In a single week, Tehran saw numerous high-value targets struck by air raids, resulting in the deaths of Supreme Leader Khamenei and several members of Iran’s top military cadre. In retaliation, Iran has targeted American military bases across all GCC countries. The conflict has now spilled over into the energy sector, with recent strikes targeting critical refineries and storage tanks in the region, leading to immediate localized blackouts and a terrifying volatility in global energy pricing. As this conflict spills across borders, the future of the Gulf’s connectivity, spanning trade, finance, and infrastructure, has been cast into deep shadow. For those who were discussing mega-projects like IMEC just weeks ago, now it is clear that as long as Israeli expansionism and American interventionism proceed unchecked, economic projections that look good on paper are destined to remain there.

The heart of connectivity: The Strait of Hormuz

The current fragility of the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates nearly a quarter of the world’s petroleum trade, is a major driver of global insecurity. Since the 1980-88 War, Iran has frequently threatened to choke this maritime artery in response to national threats. While the US Navy escorted tankers during the Tanker War phase of the Iran-Iraq conflict, the US is no longer a third-party mediator; it is now a primary combatant. Though US President Donald Trump previously sought formulas to mitigate rising shipping insurance costs, the direct targeting of even a few vessels creates a danger that no risk premium can mask, bringing maritime trade to a standstill. This is as lethal to global commerce as the IRGCN’s potential mining of the strait. Indeed, the financial toll is already mounting, as maritime insurance premiums would surge from 0.25 % to 3% for vessels operating in the Gulf following the widening conflict in March 2026, forcing many operators to reconsider the viability of the route altogether.

The weaponization of connectivity

When global trade routes converge on a single line, it creates a dangerous dependency. Today, in terms of energy trade, 70% of the world’s oil flows need strategic arteries which can be weaponized in times of war. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% to 30% of total global liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil consumption, is the ultimate chokepoint. While the course of the war is difficult to predict, if Israel and the US continue pursuing the maximalist goal of total regime change, Tehran may resort to unprecedented methods to freeze the flow through Hormuz indefinitely. Simultaneously, the blockade by the Iranian-backed Houthis in the Red Sea, which began after Oct. 7, has been renewed with a lethal commitment. This creates a double-pincer blockage around the Arabian Peninsula. In such a scenario, the material consequences would be catastrophic, including a total disruption of Suez Canal traffic, a spike in global Brent crude prices toward $150 per barrel, and a systematic breakdown of the just-in-time delivery model for European manufacturing.

The Development Road: A vital alternative

Amid this conflict-ridden regional environment, the Türkiye-Iraq Development Road, alongside the Middle Corridor, offers a viable alternative. With an infrastructure of railways, highways, and ports that is significantly more advanced than its conceptual competitors, this route positions Türkiye at the center of the flow toward European markets. Because the Development Road originates at the Grand Faw Port in the inner Persian Gulf, it is geographically positioned to bypass the vulnerabilities of a total Hormuz closure for land-linked cargo. This provides a distinct advantage over costlier inland transport for Gulf nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Geographically, it acts as a north-south complement to the east-west axis of the Middle Corridor stretching from China to Europe. This synergy can be further solidified through the development of high-speed rail networks, which could be a focal point for China’s BRI, the integration of the TIR Convention to streamline land freight, and enhanced customs regulations to ensure seamless transit.

The Türkiye-Iraq Development Road project provides a massive time and cost advantage, reportedly shortening the travel time between Asia and Europe by approximately 15 days compared to the Cape of Good Hope route and significantly undercutting the rising costs of the Red Sea passage. As Israeli expansionism and American interventionism push the region toward a conflict with no clear deadline, the importance of alternative supply chains is no longer a theoretical debate; it is a matter of economic survival. Hard times become manageable when the global economy is reshaped by secure, regional routes. In this era of upheaval, the central importance of Türkiye, through the Middle Corridor and the Development Road, will finally be understood by the world.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.