ROME
Italy has become the first country in Europe where the far right, which has been on the rise in recent years, has come to power with two separate parties. The parties are aiming to continue their surge in votes in next year's European Parliament (EP) elections, but this is also pushing them into an implicit rivalry.
In the early general elections held in Italy on Sept. 25, 2022, the far right came to power.
The Brothers of Italy (FdI) party led by the far-right Giorgia Meloni, which came first in the elections in Italy, the EU's third-largest economy, failed to achieve the majority to rule alone in parliament and formed a right-wing coalition government in October 2022, taking the League party led by another far-right party, Matteo Salvini, and Forza Italia (FI), Silvio Berlusconi's center-right party.
The right-wing coalition government led by Meloni, which has been in office for more than a year, has appealed to some legal measures to deter irregular migration. Despite international initiatives, it has not yet achieved the desired result in preventing the arrival of migrants. The Meloni government continues to have disagreements with both the EU administration and other member states on this issue.
As a result of anti-immigrant policies that are popular in the context of security and the occasional critical attitude towards the EU, opinion polls show that the right-wing coalition parties have increased their votes and maintained their current position.
However, the fact that Italy's ruling partners, FdI, League, and FI, are in different political groups also carries the risk of pitting the ruling partners against each other in the EP elections to be held on June 6-9, 2024.
The presence of FdI in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, the League in the Identity and Democracy (ID) group and FI in the European People's Party (EPP) in the EP has already started discussions on whether the EP elections will have an impact on Italian domestic politics. It is also commented that the unity of these three parties in Italy may be reflected in the new administration of the EU in the new period.
'Polls suggest some growth of the far right within the EP'
Andrea Ungari, a historian and political scientist at Luiss University in Rome, told Anadolu that there is still time for the EP elections and said, "Recent polls show that the duo of Matteo Salvini-Marine Le Pen on the far right is ahead of the ECR, which includes Meloni. In fact, the polls give the idea that the far right will grow slightly in the EP."
Ungari emphasized the need for an agreement between the EPP and the right-wing parties to change the balance in the EP and, thus, the EU governance.
"It remains to be seen whether the EPP will accept such an agreement. Because I don't think the far right can somehow have a majority in the EP, even if it aligns with the European conservatives."
Ungari said that Meloni had drawn an anti-European profile in some respects before last year's elections and continued: "However, he realized that he could not have this attitude in the government and that, first of all, today such a country cannot be governed without the support of Europe. In my opinion, this is very clear. I cannot say that he has become pro-European, but he has mitigated some of his past attitudes."
"In this context, Salvini is obviously trying to win back voters who initially supported Meloni but are dissatisfied with Meloni's shift to a more moderate position. By positioning himself to the right of Meloni, he is therefore trying to win back a few voters who are more hostile to the European Union," Ungari said.
Castiglioni: 'ID-linked parties on the rise'
Federico Castiglioni, a researcher at the Rome-based Institute of International Affairs (IAI), said that some of the parties on the far right are under the umbrella of the ID and some are under the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), and continued, "Parties linked to the ID are on the rise."
Castiglioni pointed out that the Dutch far-right extremist Geert Wilders, who is part of the ID, is likely to come to power after the elections in the Netherlands.
Castiglioni said: "As far as the European elections are concerned, the current polls actually show that the ID is on the rise, not least because of the thought that Marine Le Pen's party, the National Union, will grow in France. According to political analysts, Le Pen's growth can be attributed precisely to the Italian experience."
Castiglioni said that the three right-wing parties in the coalition in Italy are also in 3 different political groups in Europe.
"Those who are considered to be on the far right are no longer perceived as dangerous because they are in the government and among the government forces and, therefore, should not be excluded. For the first time, there is a possibility that moderate parties will open up to these parties from the far right and form coalitions. This is the real novelty in the European political panorama and the reason why 'Identity and Democracy,' but especially the ECR, is expected to grow in the June 2024 EP elections," Castiglioni said.
Castiglioni commented on what kind of a picture will be encountered regarding the governance of Europe if the far right increases its votes in the EP elections.
Castiglioni said: "It is, of course, very difficult to predict what will happen after the elections. According to some, it is possible that the experience in Italy will be repeated on a European scale; that is, the EPP, ECR, and ID will come to power together. Looking at the numbers and the polls, however, this is difficult, and the EPP has repeatedly vetoed both, but especially ID and Democracy. So it is obviously incredibly difficult for the EPP to form an alliance with openly anti-European parties."
Castiglioni stated that the problem with the EU and the EP elections was that they overlooked the fundamental issues concerning the interests of Europe and that there were sensitivities in both right and left voters on some fundamental issues, such as migration.
Summarizing the general situation in Europe, Castiglioni said: "From my point of view, there is not a certain right-wing dominance in public opinion, but it is certain that conservative sentiment and thought prevail."
*Writing by Zeynep Cetin in Istanbul
