Oil and natural gas prices accelerate upward following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, as Tehran’s retaliatory moves and rising geopolitical risk premium rattle global energy markets.
US President Donald Trump said on Feb. 27 that Iran did not demonstrate a “good-faith stance” in nuclear talks that began Feb. 26 and expressed dissatisfaction with the course of negotiations, further heightening market risk perception.
Prices were already trending higher before the strikes. On Feb. 27, Brent crude closed up 2.8% at $73 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 2.6% to $67.17.
With markets closed on Feb. 28 and March 1, reports of US-Israeli strikes on Iran prevented immediate price reaction. However, accumulated geopolitical risk premium materialized in a sharp opening at the start of the week.
On March 2, Brent jumped 7.1% to close at $78.15, while WTI rose 6.2% to $71.33, pushing oil prices to recent highs.
Later in the day, remarks by Brig. Gen. Ebrahim Jabbari, a senior adviser to the IRGC commander-in-chief, claiming that vessel and oil tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz had been halted and warning that ships attempting passage would be targeted, intensified concerns over deeper supply disruptions.
The statement, delivered during relatively thin global trading hours on March 2, drove Brent to test $80.80 in early Asian trading, marking its highest level in nearly 15 months.
As of 11.00 a.m., Brent trades at $80.58 per barrel, its highest level since January 2025. WTI changes hands at $73.71.
According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and market projections, if hostilities persist and physical supply is disrupted, strategic reserves may only partially offset global supply shortfalls, potentially lifting oil prices into an $85-$150 per barrel range.
- European gas prices surge
Concerns over supply security also spill over into global gas markets.
A sharp decline in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint accounting for roughly 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, increases the risk of disruptions, putting upward pressure on natural gas prices, particularly in Europe.
At the Dutch-based Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s most liquid virtual gas trading hub, April futures close at €31.95 per megawatt-hour on Feb. 27. Prices then surge 38.4% to €44.5 on March 2 amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
On March 3, gas prices trade 19.9% higher at €53.35 per megawatt-hour as of 10.30 a.m.
By Duygu Alhan
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
