Global energy prices have fluctuated sharply over the past two weeks since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.
International benchmark Brent crude oil futures, which closed at $72.48 per barrel on February 27, the last trading day before the attacks, saw significant ups and downs over the following two weeks, according to data compiled by Anadolu.
On March 2, the first trading day after the attacks, Brent crude climbed to $82.37 per barrel amid geopolitical concerns and settled at $77.74, reflecting a 7.26% increase from the previous close, the biggest single-day gain since March 17, 2022.
In the days that followed, prices traded between $78 and $86 amid rising supply concerns. The upward trend was driven by a combination of factors including threats to the critical energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's retaliatory strikes on US bases and energy facilities in the region, insurers suspending war-risk coverage, halted transit by major tanker and container companies, and production cuts by some energy producers.
Even with a temporary US exemption allowing Indian refineries to purchase Russian crude, Brent crude rose to $94.64 per barrel on March 6 and ended the first week of the war at $92.69, marking its fastest weekly gain since April 2020 with a 27.8% increase.
- Oil breaks $100
Sharp fluctuations in prices continued into the second week. On March 9, Brent crude futures surged 28.9% from the previous close to $119.50 per barrel, reaching the highest level since June 29, 2022.
Expectations that G7 countries might release emergency oil reserves, along with US President Donald Trump's remarks suggesting the Iran conflict could soon end, pushed prices down to close at $98.96.
Selling pressure intensified on March 10 after a now-deleted social media post by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed the US Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing market uncertainty. Brent fell intraday to $81.16 but recovered to $87.80, down roughly 11.3% from March 9, the steepest daily drop in four years.
Comments by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, stating that talks with the US were not on the agenda, lent support to prices. While the International Energy Agency's release of strategic reserves temporarily limited gains, attacks on oil tankers in the northern Persian Gulf pushed Brent above $100 once again on March 12.
Trump's remarks suggesting the attacks would continue tempered hopes that regional tensions might ease quickly. By the end of the second week, Brent crude closed at $103.14 per barrel, up 42.3% from pre-attack levels.
- Natural gas price spikes amid supply concerns
The logistics crunch also affected liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets. Qatar, one of the world's top LNG exporters, halted production at its Ras Laffan facility due to the attacks, putting roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply at risk.
Price volatility in the European natural gas market surged as contracts traded at the Dutch-based virtual trading hub, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), experienced sharp swings amid geopolitical tensions.
The April TTF contract, which closed at €31.9 per megawatt-hour on February 27, jumped 39% to close at €44.5 on March 2, the first trading day after the attacks.
The upward trend continued into the second week, with the April contract closing at €56.4 on March 9, the highest since the attacks began. By the end of the second week, gas prices were 57% above pre-attack levels, closing at €50.1 per megawatt-hour on March 13.
- Coal prices rise 15.8% over two weeks
Coal markets followed a similar trend. The Newcastle April coal futures, a benchmark for Asian markets, closed at $118.5 per ton on February 27 before the attacks and jumped 8.6% to $128.7 on March 2.
The April contract rose further to $143.8 on March 9, marking its highest close since the attacks began. By the end of the second week, on March 13, coal prices were 15.8% above pre-attack levels, closing at $137.3 per ton.
By Firdevs Yuksel
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
