Energy-related CO2 emissions in the world are expected to increase through 2050, the U.S.' Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a statement on Monday.
Global energy-related CO2 emissions are estimated to grow 0.6% every year from 2018 to 2050, according to the EIA's reference case.
"However, future growth in energy-related CO2 emissions is not evenly distributed across the world," the statement said.
"Relatively developed economies collectively have no emissions growth, so all of the future growth in energy-related CO2 emissions is among the group of countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)," it added.
The EIA said countries outside of the OECD have more population collectively, while they have a larger gross domestic product, more energy consumption, and higher energy-related CO2 emissions, compared to total values from OECD countries.
"As non-OECD countries continue to grow, so does their demand for air conditioning, electronics, personal vehicles, and other energy services," the statement said.
"These countries also have relatively energy-intensive industries, primarily because energy-intensive industrial processes often shift to non-OECD countries," it added.
The EIA forecasts energy consumption in non-OECD countries to increase by 1.6% every year from 2018 to 2050, and energy-related CO2 emissions to rise by 1% per year.
As natural gas replaces coal in power generation and various industries, coal-related CO2 emissions in non-OECD countries, especially China, are expected to grow at the slowest rate among fossils, according to the EIA.
"China emits the most energy-related CO2 emissions in the world, and EIA projects that it will remain in that position through 2050," the statement said.
"Although India’s coal-related CO2 emissions increase 2.8% annually from 2018 to 2050 -- the highest among the eight countries in EIA’s international outlook -- China remains the single largest emitter of coal-related CO2 emissions in the world.
- OECD countries
Since OECD economies, on the other hand, are relatively mature, population and economic growth is relatively low in those economies compared to non-OECD countries, while technology improvements largely offset increases in energy demand in buildings and vehicles, the EIA noted.
"OECD economic activity continues to become less energy intensive as these economies shift from energy-intensive manufacturing to less energy-intensive manufacturing and commercial services," it said, adding that energy-related CO2 emissions from OECD countries is estimated to fall by 0.2% from 2018 to 2050.
EIA said it expects the U.S. to remain through 2050 the largest emitter of energy-related CO2 emissions among OECD members, and the largest emitter of natural gas-related emissions among all countries in the world.
"Petroleum liquids-related CO2 emissions from the U.S. and China -- the top two petroleum liquids-related CO2 emitters -- are relatively similar throughout the projection period," it added.
The EIA said non-OECD countries are expected to become less energy intensive than OECD countries by 2032, which means they will use less energy to generate economic activity.
However, non-OECD countries are expected to remain more carbon intensive than OECD countries through 2050, meaning they generate more CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumed, it added.
By Ovunc Kutlu