Japan says earthquake in capital could kill 18,000, cost $535B in damage

ISTANBUL

An earthquake with a high likelihood of striking beneath Tokyo and nearby areas in the coming decades could kill 18,000 people and cause 83 trillion yen ($535 billion) in economic damage in the worst-case scenario, according to a Japanese draft government estimate.

The estimate issued on Friday was made under the scenario of a magnitude-7.3 quake hitting the metropolitan area, according to the Kyodo News.

The estimated damage was revised down from the government’s 2015 projection of 23,000 deaths and economic losses of 95 trillion yen ($611 billion), taking into account progress in making buildings more resistant to earthquakes and fires.

However, the current estimate still falls short of the government’s goal at the time to halve the projected death toll within 10 years.

Given Japan’s location on the Pacific Ring of Fire and its roughly 1,500 earthquakes each year, the government plans to update its basic disaster preparedness plan after presenting the new estimate to a panel of experts later this month.

The estimate "could still change," a government source said.

The projected magnitude 7.3 quake is smaller than the 9.1 magnitude earthquake that struck Japan’s northeastern Tohoku region in 2011, triggering a tsunami that caused a leak at the Fukushima nuclear power plant and resulted in more than 18,000 deaths.

Tokyo estimates there is roughly a 70% chance of such an earthquake occurring in the capital and surrounding areas within the next 30 years.

If such a quake were to strike, it would affect millions in the metropolitan area that hosts government offices and major corporate headquarters.

Around 400,000 buildings could be destroyed, and 8.4 million people could be stranded or face difficulty returning home.

Disaster-related deaths, such as those caused by deteriorating health while taking shelter, are estimated to reach between 16,000 and 41,000, according to the draft assessment.