BOGOTA, Colombia

Colombians will head to the polls Sunday for legislative elections widely seen as crucial in shaping the race to succeed President Gustavo Petro.

The vote serves as a complex prelude to the presidential election in May. Voters will renew all 286 seats in Congress -- 103 in the Senate and 183 in the House of Representatives -- while also taking part in three primary contests aimed at narrowing a crowded field of presidential hopefuls.

"Sunday’s results could completely redraw the political map," said Diego Baquero, a specialist in high-level political trend forecasting. "We are standing at a pivotal moment where we might finally see the race move beyond a simple choice between two ideological extremes."

Recent polling suggests the presidential race is increasingly defined by a sharp ideological divide between Senator Ivan Cepeda, a veteran human rights activist representing the leftist Pacto Historico coalition, and Abelardo de la Espriella, a hard-right lawyer running as an outsider.

A February survey by Guarumo-Ecoanalítica showed Cepeda leading voter intentions with 31.7%, followed by De la Espriella at 22.6%.

Neither candidate is competing in Sunday’s primaries after already securing their positions for the presidential first round. Analysts say the outcome of the primaries could determine whether a centrist candidate emerges to challenge the two dominant political poles.

Power map

For Petro, the stakes are high. After a four-year presidency marked by legislative gridlock and ambitious promises of social transformation, the legislative vote could determine how his political legacy is protected. Early projections suggest that both Petro and his eventual successor may face an even more fragmented Congress.

Baquero said the next legislature is likely to be shaped by two main blocs: Petro’s Pacto Historico coalition on the left and the conservative Centro Democratico party on the right.

Together, they could capture roughly 40% of the seats, leaving the remaining positions divided among traditional parties such as the Liberal and Conservative parties, emerging forces like the Broad Front and National Salvation, and centrist groups including the Green Alliance and New Liberalism.

"No single party is expected to emerge with a clear majority," Baquero said. The fragmentation could complicate legislative work during the final months of Petro’s presidency.

Newly elected lawmakers will not take their seats until July 20, leaving limited time for Petro to pass reforms before his term ends in August.

"Ultimately," Baquero added, "the future of the national agenda will depend on the next president’s ability to build a broad governing coalition."

3 primaries to watch

Although several leading presidential contenders have skipped the March primaries and secured places in the May first round, Sunday’s consultations remain an important test of voter mobilization.

While Cepeda is already confirmed as the Pacto Historico candidate, the Front for Life (Frente por la Vida) consultation will measure broader support across the left. It includes figures such as Roy Barreras, former ambassador to the UK and veteran political strategist, and Daniel Quintero, the former mayor of Medellin.

The Consultation for Solutions (Consulta por las Soluciones) is considered the most open race and is led by Claudia Lopez, the former mayor of Bogota, who is seeking to consolidate the moderate vote.

The Great Consultation for Colombia (Gran Consulta por Colombia) is a conservative coalition contest in which Senator Paloma Valencia and journalist Vicky Davila are competing to unify the right. Recent polling indicates that Valencia has gained momentum and is emerging as the favorite to win the coalition’s nomination.

Breaking '2-extreme' cycles

For years, Colombian politics has been a tug-of-war between the far-right and the far-left. Baquero says Sunday could finally break that lock.

"The importance of the three consultations is that they reveal the true weight of each movement. A candidate only becomes viable if they can mobilize enough votes," Baquero said.

He said Sunday’s vote could open the path for additional moderate candidates to become competitive.

By expanding the field, the primary results may act as a political “safety valve” in a democracy facing rising polarization.

Referendum on Petro

For President Petro, Sunday is a verdict. While his popularity has rebounded to nearly 49% -- fueled by a higher minimum wage and a pragmatic "diplomatic truce" with the US administration-the legislative vote will prove if he can translate that personal popularity into actual voting "muscle."

The campaign has unfolded against a shifting backdrop. While security concerns and violence remain grave, the political narrative has pivoted toward the "social agenda" -- the deep-seated inequality that propelled Petro to power in 2022.

He has also shown a surprising ability to neutralize critics on the international stage by securing a pragmatic working relationship with the US president, depriving his rival a key talking point.

Test of voter fatigue

Despite the high stakes, many Colombians approach the vote with a sense of political fatigue. Turnout in congressional elections historically remains below 50%, and analysts estimate that roughly 19 million of the country’s 40 million registered voters may cast ballots.

"The electorate is grappling with conflicting sentiments," Baquero said. "On one hand, there is a defiant desire for change. On the other, there is a deep-seated exhaustion with this government's perceived lack of experience, mismanagement, and failure to execute."

Sunday’s vote will help determine whether the political momentum behind Petro’s promise of change continues or whether voters shift toward more traditional or hardline alternatives.