Thai officials, rebels differ on peace-talks prospects

By Max Constant

BANGKOK

Opposing sides in southern Thai peace talks sounded two different tones Friday, with junta officials announcing optimism, while insurgents warned of the dangers of insincerity.

The chief negotiator for new umbrella group Mara Patani -- which claims to represent all rebel groups -- warned that the process would collapse if the Thai side tried to manipulate the talks.

“If either side is insincere, there shall be more violence. And if our three terms are not honored, there will be violence without any side claiming responsibility,” Masukree Haree told BenarNews on Friday.

Mara Patani is spearheading efforts to restart negotiations after the junta said that it wanted to hold talks with a wider group of separatists. Previous discussions were dominated by the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (National Revolutionary Front) -- the most active insurgent group on the ground.

Patani council chief Awang Jabat said Thursday that the coalition had invited all stakeholders in the process to unify efforts for self-determination; however, it remains uncertain just how much control Patani has over the different outfits.

An anonymous source told BenarNews on Tuesday that one of three factions of the Patani United Liberation Organization (PULO) was not represented at the meeting, and had pulled out of the pre-peace talk negotiations.

The talks between the Thai military appointed-government and Malay Muslim rebels -- which took place in Malaysia this week -- were the first between the two sides since events surrounding last year's Thai coup saw them come to a standstill.

General Nakrob Bunbuathong, a member of the Thai delegation, said he was optimistic that a joint statement to be signed by the two sides at the end of next month would signify that key issues had been discussed, according to the Bangkok Post on Friday.

During Tuesday's initial talks, the government delegation put forward three issues it wanted discussed: the establishment of safety zones in areas of southern Thailand where the insurgency is taking place, “economic development” and “justice for all".

Bunbuathong said that the Thai side was hoping to put into place one safety zone -- an area where both parties would guarantee that no violence would take place -- in each district of the three southern provinces: Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat.

Mara Patani, however, proposed just one.

According to the Post, the Thai delegation remained “most hopeful that the safety zone will materialise”.

Chief negotiator Haree -- who belongs to the BRN -- sounded much more reserved.

Mara Patani had put forward three demands at the meeting: that Thailand place the peace process on its national agenda through a parliamentary vote, that Mara Patani be recognized as a legitimate negotiating body by the Thai side, and that rebel negotiators are guaranteed immunity from prosecution and arrest when they travel in southern Thailand.

Bunbuathong told Malaysia-based news website BenarNews on Thursday that the Thai delegation had taken note of these demands -- “the terms were received and will be considered along [with] the process”.

Haree had underlined that “Mara Patani needed a clear answer from the government in order to ensure continuity".

Mara Patani is made up mostly of old insurgent movements -- Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), three factions of PULO, the Gerakan Mujahideen Islam Pattani and the Barisan Islam Pembebasan Patani -- who were part of previous talks, but as separate entities.

Malaysian host and facilitator Zamzamin Hashim -- the former chief of Malaysia's intelligence agency -- and his secretariat were involved in organizing and launching the group.

Experts, however, have maintained that it is unclear just what degree of control Mara Patani has.

“The pro-dialogue faction of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional BRN [the main separatist organization active on the ground] has joined Mara Patani, although the BRN leadership has not endorsed this initiative as they still have different views on this,” Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat, an expert on the southern insurgency currently based at Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at Australian National University, told Anadolu Agency.

“Past records show that the BRN has a strong command and control over the militants on the ground. Such capability can be tested again if and when both sides can agree to hold a ceasefire.”

This week's talks, which took place in a police safe house in the Malaysian capital, were the third between Thai officials and the rebel groups since the Thai military seized power in a May 2014 coup.

The two previous sessions were in June.

The southern insurgency is rooted in a century-old ethno-cultural conflict between Malay Muslims living in the provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and some districts of Songhkla and the Thai central state where Buddhism is considered the de facto national religion.

Armed insurgent groups were formed in the 1960s after the then-military dictatorship tried to interfere in Islamic schools, but went quiet from the end of the 1980s.

In 2004, a rejuvenated armed movement -- composed of numerous local cells of fighters loosely grouped around the BRN re-emerged. Since then, the conflict has killed 6,400 people and injured over 11,000, making it one of the deadliest low-intensity conflicts on the planet.

A peace dialogue was engaged by the elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra in 2013, but was suspended in December of that year because of the political tensions in Bangkok.

The May 22, 2014 coup, which overthrew Shinawatra’s government and brought a junta to power, added more uncertainty to a possible peaceful solution, even if the military are continuing the dialogue, albeit under a closed meeting format.

“The crux of the matter is on the issue of self-governance”, said Chalermsripinyorat.

“I think we can hope that the process could yield some tangible and meaningful results. It remains to be seen how the Thai side will respond to the BRN demands,” she added.

In a recent report, the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, recommended -- among others -- suggestions that the Thai government “recognize an official dialogue process with Malay militant groups as a national-agenda priority, endorsed by the National assembly”.

It also suggested militant groups “recognize that self-determination is compatible with preservation of Thailand’s national integrity”.

A date has yet to be given for the resumption of this week's talks.