Syria's post-conflict reconstruction to cost at least $216B: World Bank

ISTANBUL

War-torn Syria's reconstruction costs are expected to range between $140 billion and $345 billion, with a conservative estimate of $216 billion, the World Bank said on Tuesday.

The 13-year long civil war physically damaged $108 billion worth of structures and infrastructure, amounting to one-third of the nation's gross capital stock (GCS), according to the development organization's The Syrian Conflict: Physical Damage and Reconstruction Assessment (2011-2024) report.

Infrastructure was the most severely damaged category, accounting for 48% of the total damage ($52 billion), followed by residential structures ($33 billion) and non-residential buildings ($23 billion). In terms of total destruction, the governorates of Aleppo, Rif Dimashq, and Homs suffered the most.

"The damage and reconstruction cost estimates are presented in the context of an already dire macroeconomic situation," the report said.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of Syria contracted 53% between 2010 and 2022. And in nominal terms, the GDP shrank from an anticipated $67.5 billion in 2011 to $21.4 billion in 2024.

The World Bank said the estimates of reconstruction costs are about 10 times the nominal 2024 GDP, reflecting both the extensive damage caused by the conflict as well as the years of massive economic contraction.

Economic sanctions and the conflict's disruptions have also resulted in a dependence on imports, the depletion of foreign reserves, and severely limited fiscal resources; in 2024, capital expenditures were just 11% of their 2010 level.

"These conditions further constrain Syria’s macroeconomic and fiscal capacity to be able to respond to the magnitude of reconstruction costs," the report said.

Syrian Finance Minister Yisr Barnieh said the report provides a critical baseline of the massive scale of the destruction and of the reconstruction costs ahead, according to Economy Middle East news outlet.

“Now, more than ever, it is imperative for the international community to mobilize support and partnership to help Syria restore essential infrastructure, revitalize communities, and lay the foundation for a more resilient future for its people," Barnieh said.

The Syrian civil war ended last December after Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s leader for nearly 25 years, fled to Russia, ending the Baath Party regime, which had been in power since 1963.

After the establishment of a new government led by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, Syria has pursued political and economic reforms while promoting social cohesion and expanding cooperation with regional and international partners.

Syria has also been implementing fiscal and economic reforms to attract foreign investment.