ISTANBUL

The world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) complex in Qatar is unlikely to return to full capacity for years after being damaged by Iranian strikes, as critical equipment shortages delay repairs, Rystad Energy said Wednesday.

Damage to two LNG production units at Ras Laffan Industrial City has created a structural bottleneck in recovery, as replacement gas turbines needed to power refrigeration compressors face global delivery delays of two to four years, according to the Norway-based energy consultancy.

Rystad estimates the damage has cut Qatar’s LNG capacity by around 17%, equivalent to roughly 12.8 million tons per year.

Restoring output is not primarily a question of funding but of supply chain constraints, as only three global manufacturers produce the large-frame turbines required for LNG operations, it adds.

These suppliers entered 2026 with order books already stretched by strong demand linked to data center expansion and the global shift away from coal.

As a result, even with immediate capital deployment, procurement delays alone could push meaningful recovery several years out, with full restoration timelines extending up to five years.

“The scale of damage and long lead times for critical equipment could result in slow recovery at Ras Laffan,” said Audun Martinsen, head of supply chain research at Rystad Energy.

The disruption in Qatar forms part of a broader regional energy shock triggered by the conflict, which has damaged LNG plants, refineries and fuel infrastructure across the Middle East.

Rystad estimates that repair costs to date could reach at least $25 billion and are likely to rise further.

While some facilities in the Gulf may resume operations within months, others, particularly those reliant on specialized imported equipment, could remain offline for years, the report said.

The prolonged outage at Ras Laffan is expected to have lasting implications for global LNG supply, particularly for European and Asian markets that rely heavily on Qatari exports, as recovery timelines remain constrained by manufacturing bottlenecks rather than financial resources.