Aysu Bicer
15 January 2026•Update: 15 January 2026
LONDON
Scotland's devolved Parliament is on course to elect a pro-independence majority in elections this May, with the Scottish National Party (SNP) securing 61 seats, according to a new Survation poll released on Thursday.
The survey, commissioned by True North Advisors, suggests SNP will remain the largest party when voters go to the polls on May 7, putting First Minister John Swinney’s party on track for a fifth term in government.
On the constituency vote, the SNP polled at 34%, with far-right Reform UK in second place at 19%.
Scottish Labour followed with 16%, ahead of the Conservatives with 13%. The Liberal Democrats had 9%, the Greens 8%, and Alba 1%.
The regional list vote showed the SNP at 28%, while Reform UK and Scottish Labour were tied with 18%. The Conservatives polled 13%, the Liberal Democrats 11%, the Greens 9%, and Alba 3%.
The poll also indicates challenges for Scottish Labour. Almost half of voters said the performance of the UK Labour government would make them less likely to vote Scottish Labour in May.
Swinney reportedly plans to declare a mandate for a new independence referendum if his party wins a majority of seats in May.
Rachel Reeves, the UK chancellor of the exchequer, said in November that there would not be a referendum, even if the SNP wins, leading Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison to accuse her of an "astonishing display of arrogance.”
The last Scottish independence referendum, in 2014, voted for Scotland to remain in the UK, but since the 2016 vote for Brexit – which most Scottish voters opposed – support for Scottish independence has generally grown.
A poll last November, however, saw most Scots opposed to independence, 51% to 49%.
