- Macron has said France will increase its nuclear warhead stockpile, stop disclosing arsenal size, and deepen cooperation with European partners

- ‘By abandoning detailed transparency, France is reintroducing strategic uncertainty as a component of deterrence,’ says expert

ISTANBUL

France is once again placing its nuclear arsenal at the center of Europe’s security debate after President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to expand the country’s nuclear warhead stockpile.

“The last few months have had the weight of years. Our competitors have evolved, as have our partners. The world has become a tougher place,” he said at the imposing Ile Longue submarine base earlier this month.

“We must strengthen our nuclear deterrence against the combination of threats, and we must conceive our deterrence strategy within the depth of the European continent and with full respect for our sovereignty,” he added.

France’s new strategy, which Macron described as “forward deterrence,” involves increasing the country’s nuclear warhead stockpile, ending public disclosure of its arsenal size, and deepening cooperation with European partners, including Germany, the UK, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark and Greece.

France, the EU’s only nuclear-armed state, currently possesses about 290 nuclear warheads, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The new strategy could involve allied participation in nuclear-related exercises, visits to French nuclear facilities, and even temporary deployments of French nuclear-capable Rafale fighter jets on allied territory.

“This dispersal across Europe, like an archipelago of power, will complicate our adversaries’ calculus,” Macron said. “To be free, one must be feared. To be feared, one must be powerful.”

‘Strategic clarification rather than revolution’​​​​​​​

Macron’s move comes at a time when Europe finds itself in a far more volatile security environment, shaped by the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, rising instability in the Middle East and mounting doubts about the reliability of US security guarantees.

Yet, Paul Dorfman, chair of the Nuclear Consulting Group and a senior academic at the University of Sussex, said the speech may represent less of a strategic revolution than it appears.

“While some see this as a watershed moment, Macron’s speech is better understood as a strategic clarification of France’s nuclear policy rather than a doctrinal revolution,” Dorfman told Anadolu.

“Macron mostly reaffirmed long-standing French principles of sovereign nuclear control and deliberate ambiguity at a time of Russian threat and uncertainty about US commitment,” he added.

He noted that Paris may also be attempting to prevent new nuclear ambitions from emerging in Europe by offering partners a broader deterrence framework centered on the French force.

France and the UK are Europe’s only nuclear-armed states, with the UK estimated to possess about 225 warheads and planning to increase the ceiling to around 260.

“Nuclear arsenals worldwide are expanding or modernizing, if not both, and strategic competition between major powers has intensified,” Dorfman said. “By abandoning detailed transparency, France is reintroducing strategic uncertainty as a component of deterrence.”

NATO questions remain

Macron has repeatedly stressed that the French initiative is designed to strengthen, not replace NATO’s deterrence.

Yet France’s position inside the alliance adds a layer of complexity to the debate.

France, despite being a NATO member, remains one of the few allies that does not participate in the alliance’s nuclear planning mechanisms.

That makes the French nuclear force entirely independent of NATO command structures, with the final decision on its use resting solely with the French president.

Still, French officials have consistently argued that the country’s nuclear deterrent contributes to the alliance’s overall security posture.

According to SIPRI, the global inventory of nuclear weapons stood at about 12,241 warheads in early 2025, with roughly 9,614 in military stockpiles available for use.

Russia and the US together control nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons.

“In theory at least, a strengthening of the French deterrent would automatically strengthen allied security,” Jacob Ross, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Anadolu.

“In reality, however, many observers, including in Berlin, have long been wary about the effects of setting up parallel structures, and have been warning that this could lead to the retreat of US guarantees and a weakening of Euro-Atlantic security,” Ross added.

Germany as a key partner

Germany is likely to play a central role in the initiative.

Paris and Berlin already announced plans to establish a joint working group on nuclear cooperation under the framework of the 2019 Aachen Treaty.

Ross said Macron’s latest announcement builds on a debate that has been unfolding for several years.

“Macron’s proposal to strengthen what French presidents have been calling the ‘European dimension’ of French nuclear deterrence has been on the table since 2020, when he gave his first speech on nuclear doctrine,” Ross said.

However, Macron’s decision to expand the arsenal adds a new signal.

“The fact that he announced an increase of warheads, potentially putting into question the long-held doctrinal axiom of ‘strict sufficiency’ of the arsenal, contains an important new signal to European partners, including Germany,” he said.

Yet the idea of deeper nuclear cooperation could still face political sensitivities in Germany.

Berlin already participates in NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangement and hosts US nuclear weapons at Buchel air base, where German aircraft are tasked with delivering them in a crisis under NATO command structures.

For now, Ross suggested that Germany is unlikely to abandon its reliance on the American nuclear umbrella.

“These discussions and decisions remain theoretical,” he said. “The existence of the current US nuclear guarantees makes it unlikely that there’s any appetite in Berlin to develop a secondary system with France on the same level.”

The US maintains a forward-deployed nuclear presence in Europe under NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangements.

Approximately 100 US B61 nuclear bombs are stored across several European NATO countries, including Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Türkiye.

Cost and political constraints

Another challenge lies in the cost of maintaining and expanding nuclear forces.

According to French Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin, nuclear forces currently account for around 13% of the country’s military budget, which stands at €57.1 billion ($65.8 billion) for 2026.

“Nuclear deterrence is a vastly costly enterprise, and the French state is already under significant financial stress,” Dorfman said.

The government is expected to unveil a draft revision to the military spending law this spring, increasing the 2024-2030 defense budget by €36 billion ($41.5 billion) beyond the €413 billion ($476 billion) already approved.

“Given the pan-EU nature of Macron’s ‘advanced deterrence’ concept, it would seem likely that France could seek pan-EU financial support,” he added.

Beyond the financial dimension, the proposal could also face political resistance across Europe.

Dorfman pointed out that Macron’s plan “is more forward and more European in posture, yet entirely French in control.”

Some European governments have already signaled openness to discussing deeper cooperation, though not all countries may be willing to participate, according to experts.

Poland, which sees Russia as its primary security threat, has been among the most supportive voices for stronger European deterrence and closer cooperation with France.

“We are arming up together with our friends so that enemies will never dare to attack us,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said following Macron’s announcement.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also confirmed that Stockholm is prepared to participate in discussions on France’s initiative, while Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas welcomed the French initiative but stressed that the Baltic nation continues to “trust the United States.”

Yet Dorfman noted that while several European governments appear open to deeper cooperation, others – including Hungary, which maintains closer ties with Moscow – may be less willing to participate.