The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its global oil demand forecast for 2021 unchanged while predicting a 4.15 million-barrel rise for 2022, the group said in its Monthly Oil Market Report on Monday.
Global oil demand is expected to increase by around 6% to an average of 96.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021.
Proved to be resilient in the third quarter of the year, the steady outlook for oil demand is supported by rising mobility and traveling activities, particularly in OECD countries.
However, the increased risk of COVID-19 cases primarily fueled by the Delta variant is clouding oil demand prospects for the final quarter of the year, the report said.
According to the report, global oil demand for 2022 is forecast to reach pre-pandemic levels of up to 100.8 million bpd, increasing by 4.15 million bpd year over year, which is 0.9 million bpd higher than last month’s forecast. A more-than-expected robust fuel recovery in both OECD and non-OECD countries, as well as a steady economic outlook in all regions, is driving the revision.
Ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus and continued efforts to contain COVID-19 infections will also support the positive demand outlook in these regions.
Consequently, oil demand in OECD countries is expected to increase by 6.1% to reach 44.7 million barrels this year, while oil demand in non-OECD countries will rise by 6.9% to reach 52 million barrels.
In 2022, oil demand in OECD countries will increase by 4.4% to 46.5 million barrels per day, while oil demand of non-OECD countries is expected to reach 54.3 million barrels with an increase of 4.5%.
Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 is forecast to stand at 27.7 million bpd, which is 5 million bpd higher than in 2020, and demand next year is expected to reach 28.7 million bpd.
-OPEC crude oil production rises in August
Global oil production in August decreased by 300,000 bpd compared to the previous month to average 95.69 million bpd, while reflecting a year-on-year rise of 4.9 million bpd.
The report shows that OPEC crude oil production increased by 151,000 bpd month over month to an average of 26.76 million bpd, while the share of OPEC crude out of total global production rose to 28% in August, marking a 0.2% increase compared to the previous month.
Crude oil output increased mainly in Iraq and Saudi Arabia while production decreased primarily in Nigeria.
Production in Iraq increased by 90,000 bpd to 4.05 million bpd and rose by 69,000 bpd to 9.49 million bpd in Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, oil output in Nigeria decreased by 114,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd.
Non-OPEC liquids production in August increased by 180,000 bpd compared with the previous month to an average of 68.93 million bpd.
By Sibel Morrow