Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz since Feb. 28, caused by Iran's retaliatory measures against joint US-Israeli strikes, have triggered a sharp rise in jet fuel prices and disrupted global supply chains, intensifying cost pressures across the global aviation sector while positioning the US as a key alternative supplier.
According to S&P Global Platts data, jet fuel prices in Europe have surged by around 100% compared with pre-war levels, reaching record highs. The global average jet fuel price rose 7.1% last week to $209 per barrel.
Oil prices fell pver 10% after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 8.
The ceasefire raised expectations that pressure on jet fuel costs could ease, however, refinery constraints and logistical bottlenecks are expected to limit any near-term normalization in prices.
Latest data showed jet fuel prices at $181.6 per barrel in Asia and around $196.2 globally.
- Gulf tensions push Europe toward alternative supply
The Gulf region accounts for roughly 50% of Europe's jet fuel imports, making it a critical supply hub, with most flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Disruptions in the region and rising prices have increased airline costs, prompting operational constraints in some European countries and raising concerns over summer flight schedules.
As supply risks mount, European buyers are increasingly seeking alternatives, turning toward the US, a net exporter of jet fuel.
US exports of petroleum products, including gasoline, naphtha, diesel and jet fuel, rose over 20% month-on-month in March to around 3.11 million barrels per day, the highest level since 2017, according to Kpler data.
According to S&P Global, the US accounted for about 3% of Europe's jet fuel supply in 2025, with the UK the largest recipient of US shipments.
Trump also signaled that the US could step in as an alternative supplier, urging countries facing shortages in a March 31 post to purchase jet fuel from the US.
- US companies stand to benefit from high-price environment
US companies may benefit from the sustained high-price environment in jet fuel markets, as structural advantages shield domestic airlines while opening export opportunities, James Noel-Beswick, head of Commodities at Switzerland-based data firm Sparta, told Anadolu.
He said the US holds a relative edge over Europe as Middle East-driven risks push jet fuel prices higher.
The US, as the largest net refiner of gas and diesel oil globally and a major domestic energy producer, is shielded from the import-linked pricing dynamics squeezing European operators, he added.
"US airlines drawing on domestically produced jet fuel are structurally less exposed to the supply disruptions currently affecting transatlantic and Middle Eastern flows," Noel-Beswick noted.
He underlined that US energy firms are well positioned to capitalize on the current environment, as rising jet fuel costs in Europe create an opportunity to sell into the region at higher prices.
Noel-Beswick also warned that persistently elevated prices could weigh on international travel demand, particularly among price-sensitive consumers.
- Jet fuel prices set to stay elevated
The impact of a US-Iran ceasefire on jet fuel costs is likely to remain limited in the near term, as security concerns continue to deter tanker loadings from the Persian Gulf, Noel-Beswick stated.
Damaged refinery and port infrastructure in the region will take time to restore, he added.
"Globally, any jet fuel supply buffer that existed before the crisis has been severely dented, and the path back to pre-crisis levels will take months, not weeks,” he said.
He also pointed to market concerns over the durability of the ceasefire. "A credible ceasefire will improve sentiment and should help jet fuel prices find a ceiling. However, doubts about the viability of any agreement will persist, and as the supply-side picture shows, even a durable ceasefire does not quickly translate into restored supply."
"Prices are likely to remain historically elevated for months, not weeks, regardless of what happens diplomatically in the near term," he noted.
- Markets underpricing long-term risks
Natalia Losada, a senior oil products analyst at Energy Aspects, said sustained increases in jet fuel prices would eventually curb demand.
This could materialize through flight cancellations or as higher ticket prices deter consumers, she said, noting that markets are currently pricing in short-term disruptions more than prolonged supply constraints.
"The US may be less exposed to fuel shortages as it is less dependent on imports, but US airlines are generally more exposed to high prices than European ones because they hedge less," Losada explained.
By Duygu Alhan
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
