Global oil supply recorded the largest monthly decline on record in March, falling by 10.12 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous month due to the impact of the US/Israel–Iran war.
Output fell to 97.05 million bpd last month, amid attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and restrictions on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IEA's April Oil Market Report.
During this period, the daily production of the OPEC+ group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers, fell by 9.36 million bpd to 42.39 million bpd.
Production declined by 3.15 million bpd in Saudi Arabia, 3 million bpd in Iraq, 1.35 million bpd in Kuwait, 1.27 million bpd in UAE, 130,000 bpd in Bahrain, and 60,000 bpd in Iran.
Sharp production losses within OPEC+ due to the US/Israel–Iran war were partially offset by output increases in some member countries led by Kazakhstan, IEA said.
- Qatar drives non-OPEC+ output decline
Meanwhile, total daily production in non-OPEC+ countries decreased by 770,000 bpd to 54.66 million bpd in March.
The decline was mainly driven by supply disruptions in Qatar, where production fell by around 1.45 million bpd month-on-month to 370,000 bpd.
However, the drop was partially offset by record output in Brazil and a recovery in US supply.
- Demand outlook revised downward
IEA now forecasts that global oil demand will decline by approximately 80,000 bpd year-on-year to 104.26 million bpd in 2026.
This marks a reversal from the agency's previous report, which had projected an increase in demand. The weaker global outlook stemming from the US/Israel–Iran war played a key role in this shift.
Revised outlook points to a downward adjustment of 730,000 bpd compared to last month's report, with 200,000 bpd of the revision coming from OECD countries and 530,000 bpd from non-OECD countries.
In the second quarter, the projected year-on-year decline of around 1.5 million bpd is expected to be the sharpest contraction since the COVID-19 pandemic.
By Humeyra Ayaz
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
