Global oil demand is expected to increase by 6.6%, by 5.9 million barrels per day (bpd), in 2021 to an average of 95.89 million bpd, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its report on Monday.
"This is due to the uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 and the labor market on the OECD transportation fuel outlook for the first half of 2021," according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Global oil demand in 2020, however, is estimated to decline by 9.8 million bpd, or 9.8%, to reach 89.99 million bpd.
OPEC said weaker-than-expected data in OECD countries in the third quarter of 2020, mainly due to lower transportation fuel demand in the US and OECD Europe, led to a downward revision.
Demand for OPEC crude this year has been revised up by 0.1 million bpd from the previous month to stand at 22.2 million bpd, which is around 7.1 million bpd lower than in 2019.
For next year, demand for OPEC crude has been revised down by 0.2 million bpd from the previous month to stand at 27.2 million bpd, making it around 5 million bpd higher than in 2020.
"Transportation and industrial sectors are projected to lead oil demand growth in 2021. However, uncertainties remain high, mainly surrounding the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and rollout of vaccines, as well as the structural impact of COVID-19 on consumer behaviors, predominantly in the transportation sector," OPEC said.
-OPEC crude oil production rises in November
Global oil production in November increased by 1.62 million bpd compared to the previous month to average 92.53 million bpd, showing a year-on-year fall of 8.8 million bpd.
In November, OPEC crude oil production rose by 0.71 million bpd month-over-month to average 25.11 million bpd, according to the report.
As a result, the share of OPEC crude out of total global production rose to 27.1% in November, marking a 0.3% increase compared with the previous month.
Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while production decreased primarily in Iraq.
Exempted from OPEC production cuts, Libya was the country among OPEC members that raised its monthly crude oil production the most in November with an increase of 656,000 bpd to reach 1.1 million bpd.
Iraq’s production, however, fell by 76,000 bpd to 3.76 million bpd.
Non-OPEC liquids production in November increased by 0.91 million bpd compared with the previous month to average 67.42 million bpd.
By Sibel Morrow