Brent crude fell 10.8% in the second quarter as US reciprocity-based tariffs and higher OPEC+ production weighed on prices.
US President Donald Trump announced on April 2 a plan to impose at least 10% additional tariffs on imports from key trading partners, fueling fears of an escalating trade war and pressuring crude.
At the same time, OPEC+ members accelerated output increases, deepening the downturn.
Brent, which closed March at $74.55 a barrel, dropped to $58.22 in April before ending the month at $61.03, the weakest close since January 2021.
Prices rebounded in May and June, supported by US decisions on suspended tariffs and firmer demand forecasts, rising 2.6% to $62.60 in May and 6.2% to $66.46 in June.
Still, OPEC+'s pledge to lift output by 960,000 barrels per day (bpd) during the quarter, along with the US continuing to enforce many of the tariffs, drove a 10.8% decline in Brent over the period.
- Brent could hit $60 in short term
Brent crude may retreat to around $60 a barrel in the short term as global fundamentals weaken and inventories build, according to Palash Jain, Middle East oil market specialist at London-based consultancy Facts Global Energy (FGE).
However, geopolitical risks could alter the outlook, Jain told Anadolu. The biggest current uncertainty, he noted, is India's official stance on continuing purchases of Russian crude he added.
"If the Indian government, under US pressure, instructs domestic refiners to stop processing Russian crude, we anticipate a short-term spike in Brent prices to $80-85 per barrel," Jain said.
- OPEC+ supply surge could push Brent into $50
Ajay Parmar, director of Oil Markets and Energy Transition at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), said US tariff-related demand concerns and increased OPEC+ supply will remain the key drivers for crude in the coming months.
Parmar noted that if OPEC+ continues to raise output, production will climb by a total of 2.2 million bpd between April and September, a level the market will struggle to absorb.
"We think crude prices will reach the low $60s once the winter period hits later this year," Parmar said.
"Prices will continue to face pressure throughout 2026, and if OPEC+ chooses to raise supplies beyond current plans, we could see prices fall into the $50s," he added.