Oil prices climbed on Friday as fresh data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed to a modest upward revision in global oil demand and a decline in supply projections, while the Russia-Ukraine war continued to inject uncertainty into global energy markets.
International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $63.56 per barrel at 09.49 a.m. local time (0649 GMT), up 1.4% from the previous close of $62.68.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also increased by about 1.5% to $59.45, compared to $58.55 in the prior session.
The IEA lifted its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 40,000 barrels per day (bpd), now expecting consumption to rise by around 790,000 bpd from last year to 103.88 million bpd, according to its November Oil Market Report.
The agency's previous estimate pointed to a 710,000 bpd increase to 103.84 million bpd. The upward adjustment is driven largely by the US, China and Nigeria, each projected to add roughly 120,000 bpd year on year.
Demand is set to expand by another 770,000 bpd in 2026, reaching 104.65 million bpd.
On the supply side, global oil output fell by 440,000 bpd in October to 108.25 million bpd, the IEA said. The decline was primarily due to a 520,000 bpd drop in OPEC+ production, led by Kazakhstan, which accounted for nearly half of the group's losses amid maintenance at the Tengiz field. Additional reductions from Kuwait, the UAE and Libya totaled around 250,000 bpd.
OPEC crude supply slipped by about 310,000 bpd month on month to 35.16 million bpd, while non-OPEC production edged down by roughly 120,000 bpd to 73.09 million bpd.
The agency's upward revision to global oil demand and its lower supply projections supported upward price movements.
Moreover, geopolitical risks remain central to market sentiment.
Ukrainian forces struck multiple Russian targets across both Russia and Ukraine early Thursday, Nov. 13, using domestically developed Flamingo, Bars, and Lyutyi missiles, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said.
According to the General Staff, the strikes hit the Morskoy Neftyanoy Terminal oil storage facility, a helicopter site, an air-defense radar installation, and locations used for storing and preparing UAVs.
Meanwhile, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia wants peace but will continue its "special military operation" asserting that Kyiv has "shut the door" on negotiations.
Investors are also assessing the implications of US and European sanctions on Russian crude flows. US President Donald Trump on Oct. 23 added Lukoil — Russia's second-largest oil producer — and its subsidiaries to the sanctions list, citing a "serious lack of commitment" by Moscow to the Ukraine peace process.
On the other hand, further gains in crude prices were limited by a larger-than-expected US inventory build. US commercial crude stocks surged by 6.4 million barrels last week to 427.6 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, far exceeding expectations of a 1.7 million-barrel increase.
Strategic reserves rose by 800,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, while gasoline inventories dropped by around 900,000 barrels to 205.1 million barrels.
By Duygu Alhan
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
