Oil is expected to remain the leading energy source in the global mix by 2050, accounting for a 29.8% share, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The group's latest medium and long-term outlook report titled World Oil Outlook 2050, covers the period from 2024 to 2050.
The report highlights that rising population, economic growth, shifts in energy policies, and technological advancements continue to drive a rapid increase in global energy demand.
Last year, nearly 600 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity were added globally, a record high.
However, this surge in renewables has not fully met the growing energy demand, resulting in record-high consumption of traditional energy sources such as oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear power.
Towards the end of the forecast period, slowing global population growth and economic expansion, along with improvements in energy efficiency, are expected to slow the growth rate of primary energy demand. This slowdown will largely be driven by an increased share of renewable energy sources.
Global primary energy demand is projected to rise by approximately 23% by 2050 compared to last year, reaching 378 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).
This growth, averaging 0.8% annually, will come almost entirely from non-OECD countries, while demand in OECD nations is expected to remain flat or decline, OPEC said.
- Oil and gas demand to rise, coal demand to decline
During the outlook period, demand for all primary energy sources except coal is expected to grow.
Renewable energy demand is projected to increase by 52 million boepd, reaching around 99.4 million boepd.
This growth will be largely driven by policy support and declining production costs for renewables such as wind and solar power, OPEC said.
Demand for nuclear energy will regain momentum, increasing by 10 million boepd to reach 24.9 million boepd by 2050.
Driven by the need for reliable and affordable energy, demand for oil and natural gas will also continue to rise.
Oil demand is forecast to increase by 18.2 million boepd, reaching 112.4 million boepd, while natural gas demand will grow by 19.7 million boepd to 89.7 million boepd.
Coal demand, however, is expected to decline due to energy and climate policies and the rise of other sources.
It is projected to decrease by 30.4 million boepd, falling to 51.4 million boepd, making coal the only primary fuel to see a decline in demand.
- Oil and gas to retain over 50% share in global energy mix
According to the report, oil and natural gas will continue to hold more than half of the global energy mix throughout the forecast period.
By 2050, oil is expected to hold the largest share at 29.8%, followed by renewables, including hydropower and biomass, at a combined 26.3%.
Natural gas will rank third with a 23.7% share, while coal and nuclear energy will account for 13.6% and 6.6%, respectively.
By Firdevs Yuksel
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr