Global oil demand is expected to increase by around 6% to an average of 96.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its Monthly Oil Market Report on Tuesday.
Adjusted lower in the first half of 2021 mainly due to the recent developments related to COVID-19 measures in OECD Europe, the report said that oil demand in the second half of 2021 is projected to be positively impacted by a stronger economic rebound than assumed last month. Such a revival is supported by stimulus packages and the further easing of COVID-19 lockdown measures, amid an acceleration in the vaccination rollout, largely in the OECD region.
Gasoline is projected to be the key driver for the oil demand recovery beginning with the onset of the summer driving season, it added.
“Risks will remain high during 2021, subject to COVID-19 developments, and the pace of reaching herd immunity targets,” the report warned, noting that short term factors that will further impact oil demand involve developments in labor markets, the structural impact of the pandemic on demand, new energy policies and the effectiveness of large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.
Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 has been revised up by 200,000 bpd from the previous month to stand at 27.4 million bpd, which is 4.9 million bpd higher than in 2020.
-OPEC crude oil production rises in March
Global oil production in March increased by 1.22 million bpd compared to the previous month to average 93.23 million bpd, while reflecting a year-on-year fall of 7.22 million bpd.
The report shows that OPEC crude oil production increased by 200,000 bpd month-over-month to an average of 25.04 million bpd, while the share of OPEC crude out of total global production fell to 26.9% in February, marking a 0.1% decrease compared with the previous month.
Crude oil output increased mainly in Iran, Angola, Libya and Iraq, while production decreased primarily in Saudi Arabia.
Exempted from OPEC's production cuts, Iran was the country among OPEC members that raised its monthly crude oil production the most in March with an increase of 137,000 bpd to reach 2.3 million bpd.
The production of the de facto leader of the OPEC group, Saudi Arabia, fell by 33,000 bpd to 8.09 million bpd, mainly due to the country’s additional OPEC+ production cuts which will phase out gradually until July.
Non-OPEC liquids production in March increased by 1.02 million bpd compared with the previous month to an average of 68.19 million bpd.
By Sibel Morrow