• Canada’s shift reflects ‘de-risking’ rather than full decoupling from the US-led order, says political scientist Farhan Chak
• ⁠Trip signals a pivot from framing China as a ‘disruptive power’ toward renewed ‘strategic partnership,’ says analyst Einar Tangen

ISTANBUL

Canada’s relationship with China has been among the most strained of any Western country in recent years.

It deteriorated sharply in 2018 after Canada, squeezed by two superpowers, arrested Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou at the request of the US.

Beijing responded with warnings of “grave consequences” and soon detained two Canadian citizens, while bilateral trade ties began to suffer. Although Meng was released in 2021, relations remained tense, with diplomatic engagement limited and trust slow to recover.

Tensions deepened further in 2023, when Ottawa expelled a Chinese diplomat over allegations of intimidation of a Canadian lawmaker and launched a public inquiry into alleged Chinese interference in federal elections.

The relationship reached another low point in August 2024 after Canada imposed steep tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum, prompting retaliatory measures from Beijing targeting Canadian agricultural exports.

Even during his 2025 election campaign, Prime Minister Mark Carney described China as Canada’s “biggest geopolitical risk.”

But that diplomatic deep freeze ended abruptly earlier this month, when Carney traveled to China – the first visit by a Canadian prime minister since 2017 – signaling a recalibration of Ottawa’s China policy amid shifting global dynamics.

“The world has changed dramatically,” Carney told reporters in Beijing, describing the renewed engagement as positioning Canada and China within a “new world order.”

The four-day trip, which included a rare one-on-one meeting with President Xi Jinping and talks with Premier Li Qiang, marked what analysts describe as a pragmatic recalibration.

New world order, new policy

During the visit, Carney called for relations with China that are “adapted to new global realities,” characterizing Beijing’s trade ties as “more predictable” than those with the US, while emphasizing that Canada’s relationship with Washington remains “much deeper and much broader.”

Analysts say the remarks reflect Ottawa’s growing recognition that the post-Cold War international order is fragmenting, requiring a more flexible and interest-driven foreign policy.

Farhan Chak, a political science professor at MacEwan University in Edmonton, said the approach signals a strategy of “cooperate where we must, compete where we should, and protect where we can,” describing it as diversification.

Beijing-based Asia analyst Einar Tangen said the visit marked a clear tonal shift from Canada’s 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy, which framed China as an “increasingly disruptive global power,” toward reviving the “strategic partnership” language first adopted in 2005.

However, he emphasized that Carney’s focus was on “concrete economic deliverables and managed engagement within specific ‘pillars’ (like energy and agriculture), not on broad values alignment or resolving fundamental political differences.”

“The relationship will remain complex, with persistent friction over security, human rights and foreign interference,” Tangen said.

Motives for the trip

Analysts said the visit served multiple objectives, including sending signals to domestic audiences, global partners and economic stakeholders.

Carney’s trip also came amid sharply deteriorating relations between Ottawa and Washington since President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, including tensions over trade and repeated remarks suggesting Canada should become the 51st US state.

Tangen described the trip as a “deliberate and consequential shift in Canadian foreign policy,” reflecting a more independent and interest-driven approach in an increasingly fragmented global order.

He called it a “watershed moment,” particularly as Trump continues to challenge multilateral norms and what he termed the post-war “rule of law.”

Analysts said the engagement with Beijing reflects Ottawa’s response to US volatility and a desire to stabilize Canada-China ties while diversifying trade to reduce dependence on the US market.

In October, exports to the US accounted for 67.3% of all Canadian exports, Statistics Canada reported in January. While that figure reveals continued dependence, it was also the lowest non-pandemic level since the current method of data calculation began in 1997.

“China is motivated by its own need for secure energy and resource imports, (and) to counter trade barriers in Western economies,” he added.

China is currently Canada’s second-largest single-country trading partner, with bilateral merchandise trade totaling $118.9 billion in 2024.

Outcomes and implications

The most immediate outcome of the visit was a preliminary trade agreement under which Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles annually at a tariff rate of 6.1%.

In return, China will reduce tariffs on Canadian agricultural exports, including cutting duties on canola seed oil from 85% to 15% starting March 1.

Other products such as canola meal, lobsters, crabs and peas will be exempt from Chinese anti-discrimination tariffs until at least the end of 2026.

“This is just the start,” Chak said, pointing to potential cooperation in energy and climate-related sectors.

Tangen, however, cautioned that engagement will likely remain sector-specific, with cooperation focused on areas such as energy, liquefied natural gas, critical minerals and agriculture, while sensitive fields like advanced artificial intelligence and defense remain off-limits.

The visit also triggered political backlash in Washington.

Although he initially seemed unbothered by the trade deal, Trump said on Jan. 24 that Canada would face a 100% tariff if it makes a deal with China, saying on social media that Beijing will “eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life.”

The comments also came after Carney’s much-discussed speech in Davos, where he called on middle powers to unite against superpowers like the US that use “economic integration as coercion.”

“But when we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness,” Carney said. “This is not sovereignty. It’s the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination.”

After the speech, Trump also disinvited Canada to his Board of Peace.

Even so, more nations have begun to follow Canada’s lead. On Wednesday, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer landed in Beijing, making the first trip to China by a British prime minister since 2018.

‘De-risking, not decoupling’

Carney’s references to a “new world order” and “new global realities” signal what analysts describe as a hedging strategy in an increasingly fragmented international system.

Chak said diversification has become “essential” to protecting Canada’s economic stability, while Tangen argued the remarks acknowledge the collapse of the post-Cold War order and provide the intellectual foundation for Ottawa’s policy shift.

Another notable outcome of the visit was Carney’s remark that he found “much alignment” with China on Arctic security – a statement with significant strategic implications.

Tangen described the alignment as a tactical convergence focused on stability and scientific cooperation, while also signaling Canada’s independent diplomatic agency to other Arctic nations.

He also warned that such positioning could strain ties with the US and the EU.

Chak said the alignment reflects shared opposition to coercive territorial change and reinforces Canada’s stance on sovereignty, particularly amid heightened rhetoric surrounding Greenland.

Canada will “not back down when its own sovereignty is threatened repeatedly,” he added.

“Canada has been, and wishes to maintain its leverage as a ‘middle power’ relying on multilateral institutions, which the US is undermining … So, yes this is an indication of a shift, but not a break in order to build autonomy, optionality, and multi-alignment,” he said.

Ultimately, Chak said Canada’s recalibration – like that of other Western powers – should be viewed as “de-risking rather than full decoupling.”