Russian, Ukrainian attacks in Black Sea disrupt global grain shipments

Intensifying attacks on ports, grain terminals, and commercial ships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are disrupting Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments, fueling concerns over global food security.

Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter and Ukraine is known as Europe’s breadbasket, while mutual attacks between the two countries are putting pressure on maritime transport in the region during the harvest season.

Ukraine’s grain and oilseed production is expected to rise from 80 million metric tons last year to 81 million this year, with agricultural products making up around 60% of its total exports.

The UN said global agricultural markets are beginning to feel the effects of the attacks, calling for efforts to prevent tensions from escalating.

The UN World Food Programme warned that Ukrainian grain shipments could be further disrupted if attacks on shipping routes continue, deepening global food insecurity.

Some 35 attacks were carried out against ships in ports, 22 against ships at sea, and 67 on port facilities last month, while ships in Ukrainian ports were targeted a total of 14 times last year, according to the country’s Infrastructure Ministry.

Russia’s escalating attacks on ports and surrounding infrastructure in the Odesa region are affecting the main route used for Ukrainian agricultural exports — over 90% of which are shipped via the ports of Odesa and the surrounding area.

Ports in Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhny have seen commercial traffic largely come to a halt since the second half of July as security risks climbed.

Taras Vysotskyi, Ukrainian agricultural policy and food minister, said shipowners had temporarily suspended sending vessels to the country’s Black Sea ports to load agricultural products as of July 22, while alternative export routes would not reach full capacity until the end of August.

The minister stated that land and river routes at full capacity would not be able to handle half the volume of shipments that Black Sea ports normally carry.

Danish shipper Maersk temporarily suspended its feeder service via Chornomorsk port, and while it is rerouting cargo from that port to the Romanian port of Constanta, existing export bookings may be canceled or the loading port may be changed to Constanta.

The Russian Defense Ministry claims the targets it struck in attacks on Ukrainian ports and ships were used for military purposes, while Kyiv says a significant portion of the targeted facilities and vessels were used for civilian trade and agricultural exports.

Ukraine also intensified its drone attacks on Russian ports, grain terminals, and commercial vessels along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts.

Russia’s major grain export terminals at the Taman port were reportedly attacked, while some terminals along the Black Sea coast have limited grain intake by land transport amid security risks.

Operations at the Port of Taman were affected by the restrictions on ship movements in the Sea of Azov put in place on July 10.

Grain shipments continue from the ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse, but loading speeds have slowed amid security measures and restrictions.

The non-profit Rusgrain Union warned that attacks on commercial vessels and port infrastructure threaten Black Sea shipping and that export corridors could close if these conditions persist.

Both Moscow and Kyiv deny either side’s accusations of targeting civilian ships and port infrastructure, and they claim they are merely attacking targets linked to military activities.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative was signed in Istanbul in July 2022 between Türkiye, Russia, Ukraine, and the UN to prevent a potential global food crisis.

While the Black Sea grain corridor was open, more than 1,000 ships delivered around 33 million metric tons of grain to global markets and for humanitarian purposes, averting a potential global food crisis.

The corridor facilitated Ukrainian grain shipments to global markets and eased global food price pressures.

After Russia withdrew from the deal in July 2023, Ukraine established an alternative maritime corridor along the western coast of the Black Sea, close to the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria. However, intensifying attacks on ports, vessels, and grain terminals have raised uncertainty over the route's operation and the delivery of this year’s harvest, while some shippers have suspended operations.

If tensions in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov continue, grain shipment disruptions could affect prices and lead to supply pressures, especially in African and Middle Eastern countries that rely on imports from the region.