By Aamir Latif
ISLAMABAD
Peace negotiations and military operations have both been used by Pakistan's government to tackle the Taliban insurgency, now the organization is causing its own problems. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan network of Taliban groups is facing the worst split within its ranks since 2007, with the powerful Mehsud group breaking away and taking control of the key South Waziristan province.
Khalid Mehsud, known by his alias Khan Syed Sajna, leads the new group and because of alleged links to Pakistan's intelligence services, the TTP has accused them of engineering the split. Security and defense experts believe however, that the government will not be able to take advantage of the new divide because of the unclear circumstances surrounding this latest development.
Peshawar-based tribal affairs expert Rahimullah Yusufzai was involved in the early stages of this year's failed peace talks between the government and Taliban; he told Anadolu Agency that while the government may benefit from a divided enemy, a peaceful process would be more complicated.
“Earlier, it was easier to negotiate and strike a deal with Taliban because there was a central setup that was responsible for implementation of its decisions," he said. "But now, the government has to negotiate with separate groups, and there is a strong possibility whereby one group does not abide by the decision of other.”
“It seems to me if the government is silently evaluating how deep this division goes. That’s why it has neither announced to abandon peace talks nor has it stopped limited military actions,” he said.
Shifting alignments
Pakistan's government has to choose its friends and foes in the troubled northwestern Waziristan region -- but that has become more difficult. If the intelligence services did indeed have a role in the division, their share of the responsibility is unclear. The idea of the army aligning with Sajna, who now commands almost half of the Taliban's fighters, is frowned upon because of alleged links with Al-Qaeda, Uzbek militants and outlawed sectarian organizations like Lakshar-e-Jhangvi.
The government has lost a long time "ally" in the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group. Associated with the Haqqani network which has carried out numerous attacks against foreign forces in Afghanistan, the group had held a ceasefire with the government since 2007. On May 30, they announced that the peace agreement had ended, accusing the government of breaking it, and warned that Pakistan's army were planning a military onslaught on June 10. Such an operation could potentially prompt a loose alliance between the TTP and Gul Bahadur group, who have otherwise been rivals since 2007.
The reported deaths of civilians in military operations against militants was the group's stated reason for the ending of its peace agreement with the government and they have already told residents to flee North Waziristan before June 10.
“Civilian casualties, which are very much likely, in case of a military onslaught in North Waziristan may throw Gul Bahadur closer to the TTP,” Yusufzai said. “What is surprising to me is that the government has not taken any step to exploit the division (within the Taliban) in its favor.”
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