ISTANBUL
The Sunni militant advance currently sweeping Iraq is likely to reach a stalemate at or north of Baghdad according to a U.S.-based think tank report.
The Brookings Institution's ‘Iraq Military Situation Report’ released on June 14 provides an overview of the dynamics of ongoing military operations in Iraq.
Authored by Kenneth M. Pollack, a former CIA intelligence analyst, the report claims that: "They [Sunni militants] will probably continue to make some advances, but it seems unlikely that they will be able to overrun Baghdad and may not even make it to the capital."
The report has been released as Iraq witnesses some of the worst violence the troubled country has seen in the last five years. Civilians have been fleeing Iraqi cities such as Mosul as fighting between the Iraqi army and the extremist groups, which include the self-styled Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – ISIL – faction.
The analysis claims the stalemate scenario is more likely than the two next most likely alternatives: that the Sunni militants overrun Baghdad and continue their advance south into the Shi’a heartland of Iraq; or that the Shi’a coalition is able to counterattack and drive the Sunnis out of most of their recent conquests.
Pointing out that Shi’a troops would not fight and die for Sunni cities, the report says it was quite normal for Sunni militants to make rapid advances across primarily Sunni lands: "That’s because it is not surprising that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) would crumble in those areas."
ISIL, which already has control of parts of Syria, has extended its reach into Iraq since July 10, when it seized the country’s second-largest city Mosul and soon afterwards took near-complete control of the northern city of Tikrit.
Conquering Baghdad, however, which is a more heavily Shi’a city, is formidable because Shia troops are more likely to find their courage when they are defending their homes and families in Baghdad and the other Shi’a-dominated cities of the south, the report says.
It is underlined in the report that the Sunni militants in Iraq are a coalition, not a single group.
Claiming that ISIL is essentially the “lead dog” of a larger Sunni militant coalition, the report says, "ISIS [a synonym for ISIL] has been fighting in conjunction with a number of other Iraqi Sunni militant groups.
“Effectively the entire rogue’s gallery of Sunni militias from the 2006-2008 civil war have been revived by Prime Minister [Nouri] al-Maliki’s alienation of the Sunni Arab community since 2011. AQI, the Naqshbandis, the Ba’th, Jaysh al-Muhammad, Ansar al-Sunnah, and all of the rest are back in operation in Iraq, in at least tacit cooperation with a number of Sunni tribes."
The report makes it clear that all those groups are key members of the Sunni militant coalition.
That ISIL is an Iraqi entity, not a foreign group, is also emphasized in the report.
"ISIS has been part of the violence in Iraq for over a year. Many of its personnel are Iraqis... Moreover, it is busily engaged in recruiting and training additional Sunni Iraqis which is simply reinforcing the Iraqi nature of the group."
The report avoids referring to the Sunni militants as terrorists or insurgents.
"This is a traditional ethno-sectarian militia waging an intercommunal civil war. They are looking to conquer territory. They will do so using guerrilla tactics or conventional tactics — and they have been principally using conventional tactics since the seizure of Fallujah over six months ago.
“Their entire advance over south the past week has been a conventional, motorized light-infantry offensive; not a terrorist campaign, not a guerrilla warfare campaign."
Defining the Sunni militants as terrorists implies that they need to be attacked immediately and directly by the United States, the report says.
"Seeing them for what they are, first and foremost a sectarian militia waging a civil war, puts the emphasis on where it needs to be: finding an integrated political-military solution to the internal Iraqi problems that sparked the civil war. And that is a set of problems that is unlikely to be solved by immediate, direct American attacks on the Sunni militants. Indeed, such attacks could easily make the situation worse."
www.aa.com.tr/en
