• ‘This election like many other elections in Guinea-Bissau is a test of its democracy; where institutions have been largely weakened by political influence and wrangling,’ says senior analyst Beverly Ochieng
• Interim president of National Electoral Commission M'Bapi Cabi calls on Guinean voters to go and cast their ballots in a spirit of civility

KIGALI, Rwanda

Voters in Guinea-Bissau are heading to the polls on Sunday for presidential and legislative elections, in the latest test of democracy since the country’s return to multiparty politics.

Twelve candidates are in the race for president, including incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, who is seeking a second term, supported by the No Kumpu Guinea-Bissau Republican Platform.

He has promised to create more youth jobs and attract foreign companies to invest in the country.

Other contenders include former President Jose Mario Vaz, 67, who served from 2014 to 2020, Fernando Dias, 47, of the Party for Social Renewal (PRS), who is seen as Embalo’s main challenger, Baciro Dja, 52, who served two brief stints as prime minister during Vaz’s term in 2015.

Dias has promised to promote security and the country's reconciliation.

In 2019, Vaz backed Embalo after losing in the first round, which increased Embalo’s chances in the runoff against former premier Domingos Simoes Pereira.

This year, Vaz, who has presented himself as the candidate of “tranquility and peace,” has promised that once elected, his first priority will be to create conditions for cashew nuts to be sold at a good price. The small West African nation heavily depends on cashew exports.

About half of Guinea-Bissau's 2.2 million people are eligible to vote in Sunday's elections, according to the national electoral body.

In a message on Saturday, interim President of the National Electoral Commission M'Bapi Cabi called on Guinean voters to go and cast their ballots in a spirit of civility and respect for the rules governing elections.

Cabi promised that the commission would ensure transparency and impartiality in the polls.

Test of democracy

“This election, like many other elections in Guinea-Bissau, is a test of its democracy; where institutions have been largely weakened by political influence over the years and wrangling, particularly between the opposition and President Embalo,” Beverly Ochieng, a senior analyst in Control Risks’ Global Risk Analysis service, told Anadolu.

“It is likely that he will win the election ... However, he will be facing legitimacy challenges in the years and months ahead,” Ochieng said.

Since taking office in 2020, there have been several reports of coup attempts against Embalo, 53, reflecting deep political rivalries. He has, in many cases, pointed to his rivals.

In the latest coup attempt in October, Embalo accused former Prime Minister Pereira of being behind attempts to get him removed from power.

Ochieng said the next president must prioritize rebuilding trust in public institutions such as the judiciary and the electoral commission.

She also highlighted the need to reduce political influence, fight corruption and “perhaps as a means of maintaining power, initiate a form of national reconciliation or dialogue in particular with the losing camp to be able to reduce political threats.”

Dias has got the backing of Pereira, who was Embalo’s main challenger in a runoff election in 2019.

Pereira of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which led the nationalist movement for independence from Portugal in 1974, was disqualified from participation this year after authorities said that he filed his papers late.

In the event that Embalo is reelected, Ochieng said, he may want to consider dialogue with the opposition as a means of maintaining power.

Guinea-Bissau has witnessed multiple coups since its independence from Portugal. Analysts warned that allegations of undermining institutions, once continued, could likely contribute to potential fresh coup attempts in the coming months and years.

Task ahead for winner

According to Ochieng, the new president’s priorities should include political reconciliation, managing rivalries, preserving institutional legitimacy, and advancing key reforms.

“So, reforming the institutions and ensuring there is transparency in processes will be very critical for the ruling camp,” she added.

Fourteen political groups, including one coalition, are contesting legislative seats.

Guinea-Bissau has not had a sitting legislature since Embalo, a former army general, dissolved it in 2023 on accusations of a coup attempt. The PAIGC won the last legislative elections in 2023.