ISTANBUL
As the world has left a year behind since Russia's war in Ukraine began, a number of disagreements between EU member and candidate states marked the first year.
Germany shunned taking the lead in sending tanks to Ukraine, while Serbia might risk its EU candidate status by not being part of the sanctions imposed on Moscow.
A foreign policy and security analyst explained Anadolu why Germany steered clear of sending Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine at first so as not to provoke Russia, but it could not resist allies' pressure built on itself.
Omer Ozkizilcik cited the US refusal of sending its HIMARS rocket system to Ukraine at first but later changing its mind, and how it "seriously affected" the war.
"Similarly, in the context of tanks, Germany did not want to send it at first because Germany did not want to take the lead here and provoke Russia.
"Due to subsequent pressure, other countries in the European Union, especially the Baltic and Poland have a very important role here, Germany finally agreed to send these tanks to Ukraine," he said, recalling Warsaw's willingness to send tanks without Germany's consent.
He argued that at the beginning of the war, which started on Feb. 24, 2022, countries were sending Ukraine weapons to "make this military operation as costly as possible for Russia."
However, "due to the serious logistical problems experienced by the Russian army, serious problems in command, mistakes in strategy, the rottenness of the army," NATO countries saw an opportunity to turn this war into a long-term war of attrition for Russia, which led to a regular increase at the size and level of weapons systems supplied to Ukraine, he stressed.
Ozkizilcik said in terms of dates and numbers of tank shipments to Ukraine, "we do not see a sufficient number of tanks that can win the war to Ukraine and remove Russia from Ukraine's territory."
"The main purpose here," he said, "is to wear out Russia as much as possible."
According to the analyst, if half of the weapons sent to Ukraine had been sent to it at the beginning of the war or even before the war began, "this war would not have taken place at all."
Possibility of providing warplanes to Ukraine
The idea of sending tanks to Ukraine would be followed by providing warplanes, according to Ozkizilcik.
"This will likely follow a similar process and at first this idea will be rejected," he said. "Then the pressure will occur and perhaps in the future, we will see that warplanes are also being delivered to Ukraine."
He also underlined the importance of training the Ukrainian army as the level, capacity, and dimensions of weapon systems that are pledged to be sent to Ukraine increase.
"It will be a problem and useless to deliver these systems before training is completed," he said, recalling that a few countries have already announced that they will train thousands of Ukrainian army personnel. But the training process should come to the fore even more, he argued.
A country between EU membership and Russia: Serbia
Serbia attracted attention as a country that seeks to be part of the EU but also rejects to be part of the sanctions imposed against Russia. It raised the question of what will be Serbia's next move to get out of this tight situation.
Dilek Kutuk, a Balkans expert and a PhD candidate in Istanbul Medeniyet University, argued that Serbia is stuck between two sides.
"Choosing sides is not an issue for Serbia. Or, it does not see itself as stuck between the EU and Russia.
"After the wars in the Balkans in the early 2000s, while democratization and development movements in the Balkans were at the highest level with the support of the EU, Serbia's relations with Russia were not as good as today. Because at that time, the 'ideal of Europeanness' was the first priority of the people and politics," Kutuk opined.
She, however, said the problems which Europe and the global order have faced over the years and changing balances "caused the EU to compromise its values and principles."
"It was delayed in adapting to new developments, especially 'emerging powers' and 'multipolar powers.' In addition, the fact that alternatives should be produced economically helped the Balkan countries to get closer to different countries.
"For this reason, we have been discussing the presence of Russia in the Balkans and especially in Serbia in recent years," she said, adding that the "enthusiasm for EU membership," as in the early 2000s, is "not observed in the public or in politics as much as before."
Kutuk stressed that it is "not easy" for Europe, which is facing pandemics, natural disasters, wars in Ukraine and Syria, refugees and xenophobia, populism, and democratic and economic crises, to reform the process for accession to the bloc.
"Therefore, Serbia's balance policy between the EU and Russia will continue to occupy our agenda for many years."
