Tim Bale is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London and co-author of the book, The British General Election of 2024.
ISTANBUL (AA) - Long seen as something of a beacon of political stability, the United Kingdom has, since 2016, become something of a basket case. In just ten years, the country has cycled through six prime ministers and may soon ditch its seventh, prompting agonized debate about whether the UK has become 'ungovernable.'
The Labour Party won a massive parliamentary majority at the 2024 general election but on a mere 34 percent of the vote and largely due to the unpopularity of the outgoing Conservative government. Less than two years later it stands at under 20 percent in the opinion polls, while its leader, UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has some of the lowest approval ratings ever recorded for a British prime minister.
A fortnight ago, Labour saw thousands of its candidates brutally rejected by the voters at local elections in England, with the main beneficiaries being not the 'official' opposition, the Conservatives, who also lost large numbers of seats, but the populist radical right party, Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, and the left-wing 'eco-populist' Green Party, led by Zack Polanski.
Just as worryingly, Labour lost its century-old grip on Wales, where, in the contest for the principality’s parliament, it was pushed into third place behind the left-wing nationalists of Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. It also performed poorly (albeit not quite as poorly) in elections to the Scottish Parliament.
Beyond the two-party mould
Taken together, those results represent the latest acceleration of a trend that political scientists have been observing since the mid-1970s but which has sharpened since the Brexit referendum of June 2016 – namely the collapse of the UK's traditional two-party system and the consequent emergence of multiparty politics. And all this in spite of the country continuing, at least for general elections, to operate under a first-past-the-post system routinely regarded as the guarantor of a stable duopoly.
The seemingly chronic inability of both the Conservatives and Labour to deliver economic growth, decent public services, and strong borders has seen voter dissatisfaction grow and party loyalty shrink in equal measure, helping to fuel interest in more radical alternatives that, in true populist fashion, claim to represent the people against the establishment and promise simple solutions to complex problems.
Partly as a result, members of parliament representing the two 'legacy parties' have become far less inclined than they once were to give the country's prime ministers the benefit of the doubt, agitating for their replacement sooner rather than later in the desperate hope that whoever takes over can save their seats at Westminster.
When the grassroots pick the prime minister
If the selection of party leader and prime minister were left solely up to those MPs, then perhaps those picked for the top job might have the skills required to do it. Unfortunately, however, both Labour and the Conservatives decided some time ago to gift the final decision to the grassroots members of their parties – a well-meaning but demographically and ideologically unrepresentative minority whose choices in recent years, even when they haven't been disastrous (Boris Johnson and Liz Truss), have proved less than impressive (Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer).
For the moment, Starmer remains prime minister – but probably not for much longer. There is a consensus – no longer unspoken – among his Labour colleagues that he lacks the communication skills, the sense of direction, and the man-management skills needed to persuade voters to give Labour a second term and to do whatever needs to be done to both fix and inspire the country.
Starmer, in spite of his government suffering a handful of resignations in the light of Labour's drubbing at the polls a fortnight ago, remains in place largely because, right now anyway, his colleagues are unsure whether anyone among them who could do a better job could get themselves selected by the party's grassroots – or whether anyone those ordinary party members might select could possibly make a good prime minister.
Waiting for Burnham
Instead, rather than moving against Starmer immediately, they are waiting on Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, making it back into parliament via a by-election to be held next month in the nearby smaller town of Makerfield, the assumption being that he would then trigger a leadership contest and become prime minister.
Whether Burnham will be able to do that, however, remains to be seen since, in the local elections, Makerfield swung heavily to Reform UK. Ironically, that result may allow Burnham to turn the tables on Farage and fight as the anti-establishment underdog. Moreover, given widespread disappointment with Brexit's consequences, Reform's leader might be wrong to assume, as he so clearly does, that hatred of 'Brussels' is still a trump card.
One thing, though, is certain: if Burnham can't beat whoever Farage picks to fight the byelection for Reform, he would be no use to Labour anyway. Quite where that scenario would leave Starmer, his party and the country, however, is anyone's guess.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.
