- Sudanese Armed Forces oppose any deal recognizing the RSF as an equal political or military actor, and have been carrying out counterattacks to liberate areas occupied by the militia

- ‘For any kind of peaceful solution, the RSF has to disarm themselves. What we have seen is that you cannot trust the RSF with weapons. They kill civilians, they rape women. They loot and destroy food and crops,’ says Sudanese analyst Yasir Zaidan

ISTANBUL

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group accused of killing thousands of civilians in Sudan, have only agreed to a ceasefire as a tactical deception, analysts have warned.

The RSF announced last week that it had agreed to a humanitarian truce proposed by the Quad nations – the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt – but provided no clear implementation plan.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), meanwhile, said it opposes any deal recognizing the RSF as an equal political or military actor, and have been carrying out counterattacks to liberate areas occupied by the militia.

Analysts believe the RSF, which has faced global criticism for its atrocities in the city of El-Fasher, wants to use any pause to consolidate control and has no intention of taking genuine steps toward peace.

“The ceasefire is only a tactic. It is actually used as a war tactic by the RSF to reorganize their power,” said Yasir Zaidan, a Sudanese doctoral candidate at the University of Washington and former Stimson Center researcher.

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, chairman of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council, has vowed to “end the occupation” of cities besieged by the RSF, ordering government forces to advance on the western Darfur region.

“We will not lay down our arms until we break the siege of El-Fasher, Zalingei, Babanusa, and every inch desecrated by the rebellion,” he said.

Of the country’s 18 states, the RSF now controls nearly all of the five Darfur states, while the army holds the remaining 13, including the capital, Khartoum.

The SAF’s stance has also garnered support from the US, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week called for a halt to supplies of weapons to the RSF.

“Something needs to be done to cut off the weapons and support that the RSF is getting … They’re clearly receiving assistance from outside … and that needs to stop,” Rubio told reporters after a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Canada.

Sudan’s Foreign Minister Mohieldin Salem welcomed his comments, urging the international community to note that the rebel group is besieging the cities of Dilling, Kadugli and Babanusa, and warning that failing to act risks a repeat of “the tragedy in El-Fasher.”

Ceasefire as a battlefield maneuver

Zaidan pointed out that the RSF had consistently rejected previous ceasefire proposals, only shifting position after consolidating its grip on North Darfur’s capital.

“When the war started, Sudanese civilians were hopeful that the army and RSF would announce a ceasefire,” Zaidan said. “But it is a tactic by the RSF to attack civilians. They got into people’s houses in Khartoum, looted civilian infrastructure and banks.”

He reiterated that the RSF’s sudden embrace of a truce after seizing El-Fasher reflects a calculated effort to regroup and entrench its forces. “Ceasefire would help the RSF to regroup and reorganize and attack again,” he said.

The International Organization for Migration estimates that over 99,000 people have fled El-Fasher and its surroundings since last month, while overall displacement across Sudan has surpassed 10 million.

Countries around the world have condemned the RSF’s actions, while the UN, International Criminal Court (ICC) and other major organizations have warned of mounting suffering for civilians.

The ICC prosecutor has also said the “mass killings, rapes, and other crimes” by the RSF may constitute “war crimes and crimes against humanity.”

Even after declaring its intent to respect the truce, Zaidan added, the RSF launched drone attacks on civilian sites in Atbara and other towns the following day.

He said mounting international pressure and public outrage – including online campaigns condemning RSF atrocities in El-Fasher – had forced the group’s hand. “There has been very strong condemnation of their activities and atrocities in El-Fasher that brought public attention,” he said.

Control of El-Fasher, he added, gives the RSF command of crucial supply lines extending north to Libya and west to Chad.

“These routes have long served as channels for weapons and fuel,” Zaidan said, citing reports that the group continues to receive advanced drones, vehicles, and satellite equipment through cross-border smuggling networks.

SAF response and shifting fronts

Sudan’s army has launched offensives in the Kordofan region, with clashes spreading across El-Obeid, Bara, Dilling, Kadugli, and Babanusa.

Last week, the SAF repelled the RSF from city of Babanusa, which had faced repeated assaults by the militia that forced nearly 180,000 people to flee for their lives.

Burhan has ordered the military to “liberate western Darfur” from RSF control, according to local officials. Analysts say the SAF faces challenges as it shifts from urban warfare in Khartoum to vast, open battlefields in the west.

“In Khartoum, Sennar, Al-Jazira, the army fought house by house, street by street,” Zaidan said. “But Kordofan and Darfur are open lands – no mountains, no natural fortifications. It’s a different kind of war.”

To succeed, he said, the army must rethink its tactics and logistics. “This is going to take time. The army needs drones, counter-drone equipment, and speedy four-wheel trucks like the RSF uses, which are better suited to the terrain,” he said. “The army would change their strategy, recalibrate, and then advance into the region.”

No peace without RSF disarmament

Darfur’s governor, Minni Arko Minnawi, has warned that any ceasefire without the RSF’s withdrawal would cement Sudan’s partition. Zaidan agrees that lasting peace hinges on disarmament of the militia.

“For any kind of peaceful solution, the RSF has to disarm themselves,” he said. “What we have seen is that you cannot trust the RSF with weapons. They kill civilians, they rape women. They loot and destroy food and crops​​​​​​​.”

He emphasized that future peace frameworks must ensure the RSF cannot rearm or regroup. “Any kind of future peace resolution needs to make sure that the RSF is not going to weaponize again,” he said.

As the SAF regroups for counteroffensives and international actors weigh sanctions, Zaidan expects growing calls to classify the RSF as a terrorist organization and to sanction its foreign backers.

“This organization has been killing the Sudanese people. They need to be held accountable,” he said.​​​​​​​

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