- The author is the CEO and founder of Xander Group, a business consulting firm based in Astana.

ISTANBUL 

In 2025, Central Asia moved beyond being a mere crossroads of great-power competition and began shaping the terms of that competition. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan made steady advances in governance, diversified their partnerships, and pursued connectivity strategies. The result was a subtle but important transformation: Central Asian states are increasingly exercising agency, rather than reacting to external pressures.

Three developments stood out in 2025 and will shape 2026: the consolidation of governance stability, structured multi-partner diplomacy, and the challenge of turning ambition into durable connectivity in the face of climate and energy constraints. A fourth theme, the practical role of Türkiye and the Organization of Turkic States, also grew in relevance, especially in economic and trade coordination.

In March 2025, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed a comprehensive border agreement that eased decades-long tensions and removed a significant political risk that had hindered investment and logistics planning. Such breakthroughs matter because, in a region of complex frontiers, predictability underpins investor confidence and long-term project financing.

This trend toward stability was reflected in strong macroeconomic performance. According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the economies of Central Asia were expected to grow by about 6.1% in 2025, the highest regional pace in the wider Europe and Central Asia region, with projected moderation to 5.2% in 2026. Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy, was forecast to expand by 5.7%, the Kyrgyz economy by 9%, Tajikistan by 7.5%, and Uzbekistan by 6.7% — signaling broad-based resilience supported by robust domestic demand, investment, and a more diversified economic base.

Diplomacy matures into balanced engagement

Diplomatic engagement in 2025 became more balanced, pragmatic, and competitive. In April, the EU held its first summit with the five Central Asian states in Samarkand, adopting a new strategic partnership and announcing a €12 billion ($13.2 billion) Global Gateway investment package targeted at transport, critical raw materials, clean energy, and digital connectivity — a clear signal of Europe’s interest in integrating Central Asia with its own industrial and supply-chain objectives.

China continued to deepen its footprint through the expanded C5 summit format in Astana, pairing a multilateral treaty on “permanent good-neighborliness” with broader trade and infrastructure cooperation. Meanwhile, the US elevated its engagement by hosting a C5+1 presidential-level summit in Washington, culminating in high-visibility commercial outcomes with US aerospace giant Boeing — including plans for Kazakhstan’s Air Astana to acquire up to 15 Boeing 787-9s, Tajikistan’s Somon Air up to 14 aircraft, and Uzbekistan Airways firming orders for eight 787s.

Japan’s December summit introduced a complementary dimension: the Tokyo Initiative, aiming to mobilize roughly 3 trillion yen ($20 billion) over five years for connectivity, digital governance, and human-capital development, emphasizing quality infrastructure and rule-based cooperation.

Rather than tilting toward any single partner, Central Asian capitals managed a diversified portfolio of external engagements, extracting benefits while reducing dependency on any one source of finance or security.

Türkiye and Organization of Turkic States: Emerging practical role

Another noteworthy development in 2025 was the increasingly practical role of Türkiye and the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). Once seen primarily as a cultural or identity platform, the OTS is gradually functioning as an economic and trade coordination space, complementing other multilaterals. Research estimates intra-OTS trade at $42–57 billion annually, up from about 3% of members’ combined trade five years ago — a sign that economic ties among Turkic states are strengthening.

Türkiye itself has deepened economic linkages with the region. Over the past five years, cumulative trade between Türkiye and OTS member states reached an estimated $62.6 billion, driven by gains along the Zangezur and Middle Corridor routes, with exports of around $36.6 billion and imports of $26 billion. These figures reflect not only traditional trade, but the strategic integration of logistics and manufacturing supply chains that tie Central Asia closer to Europe and Anatolia.

Institutionally, the OTS ecosystem — including the Turkic Investment Fund, the Turkic Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and related bodies — offers practical mechanisms for cooperation that can reduce transaction costs and encourage harmonization of standards, especially in transport, trade facilitation, and energy networks.

Connectivity ambitions and the water-energy nexus

Connectivity remained at the core of Central Asia’s strategic agenda in 2025, with corridor projects such as the Trans-Caspian route and expanded logistics hubs reinforcing the region’s role as a nexus between Europe and Asia. These ambitions are also tied to broader initiatives, such as the Ashgabat Agreement, which aims to facilitate transit between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf and remains a reference point for multimodal trade expansion.

However, the year also highlighted a critical constraint: infrastructure is only as credible as the energy that powers it. In late 2025, Tajikistan imposed electricity rationing after a dry autumn curtailed hydropower output, underscoring how climate variability and aging systems can undermine economic activity. This episode illustrated that the water-energy nexus — once a technical planning issue — is now a strategic concern for connectivity and economic reliability.

Large-scale solutions are beginning to take shape. For example, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development signaled discussions about lending up to $1.5 billion for Kyrgyzstan’s Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower station, one of the most significant renewable energy projects in the region, with co-financing from the EU and other partners.

Looking ahead: 2026's strategic tests

As Central Asia moves into 2026, several dynamics will define its progress. Institutionalizing governance gains remains essential: predictable regulation, transparent procurement, and reliable dispute resolution will be prerequisites for sustained investment confidence. Diplomatic frameworks developed in 2025 must turn into bankable pipelines of projects, not just agreements on paper. Energy and climate resilience will increasingly determine whether connectivity ambitions generate sustainable gains or remain vulnerable to seasonal shocks.

At the same time, regional cooperation platforms such as the OTS can add value by facilitating interoperability between competing infrastructure standards and reducing friction costs in trade and transport. Türkiye’s economic engagement, backed by expanding trade volumes and shared logistics interests, underscores how middle powers can contribute to practical outcomes in the region.

If 2025 showed that Central Asia can be a strategic connector in a contested world, then 2026 will test whether it can be a strategic system, one that not only links East and West, but does so in a way that is predictable, resilient, and aligned with regional priorities.

​​​​​​​* Opinions expressed in this article are the authors' own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.