The continued rise in emissions from human activities is further intensifying the increase in global temperatures.

This week, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) under the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UK Met Office, and the California-based research organization Berkeley Earth simultaneously released reports confirming that 2025 was the third-warmest year on record.

According to information compiled by Anadolu, Copernicus data show that last year the global average surface temperature was 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average. According to analyses by the WMO and Berkeley Earth this increase was at 1.44°C, while the UK Met Office estimated it at 1.41°C.

In 2024, the warmest year on record, the global temperature increase reached 1.6°C above the pre-industrial average, and 1.48°C in 2023, the second-warmest year.

The 2023–2025 period was recorded as the first three-year span during which global temperature rise exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average, and the last 11 years have ranked as the 11 warmest years on record.

Target: Keeping global temperature rise below 2°C until end of century

Under the Paris Agreement, signed by countries to fight climate change, the goal is to keep the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C by the end of the century and, if possible, limit it to 1.5°C.

Achieving this target requires sharp and rapid reductions in global emissions. However, excluding land-use change, global emissions exceeded the level of 53 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent with a 1.3% increase on an annual basis as of the end of 2024. Approximately 38 gigatons of this consisted of carbon dioxide emissions originating from the energy sector.

Scientists warn that, following the extreme heat observed in recent years, the “window is closing” for the target of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and that this threshold could be breached within just a few years.

The UK Met Office estimates that, if emissions continue to increase, 2026 could be one of the four warmest years on record. Global temperature rise this year is projected to be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above the pre-industrial average, which would mark the fourth consecutive year in which global average temperatures exceed the pre-industrial average by around 1.4°C.

Global temperature rise rapidly approaching 1.5°C threshold

Speaking to Anadolu, Julien Nicolas, Senior Scientist at the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said that while global warming has been ongoing for many years, the pace of warming in the past few years has somewhat surprised climate scientists.

Warning that high-temperature trends are likely to persist this year, Nicolas said, “Unfortunately, we will continue to see some extreme weather events, and there is a possibility that 2026 will also be among the hottest years on record.”

Nicolas noted that ongoing warming has made extreme heat a new normal in some regions, occurring more frequently, and stressed that more countries can no longer ignore such extreme weather events and must prepare for such conditions.

Emphasizing the need to uphold the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target to prevent further warming, Nicolas said, “So far, this target may have been exceeded temporarily, but we are not talking about a permanent exceedance yet. However, we know that it is very likely that this limit will be exceeded more permanently, most likely by 2030, that is, within a few years, because global carbon emissions are not being reduced fast enough. In a sense, the window we had to limit warming to 1.5°C has closed, but that does not mean giving up on this goal in the long run. Even if this temperature limit is exceeded, we must continue to pursue it and take every possible step to bring temperatures back down over the long term. This is the only way to limit future warming and avoid its consequences.”

Nick Dunstone, climate scientist at the UK Met Office, also recalled that global temperature rise exceeded 1.5°C in 2024, adding, “Our forecasts show that this could also be possible in 2026. This demonstrates how rapidly we are approaching the breach of the 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Agreement.”