LONDON

The Gorton and Denton byelection in northwest England heads into its final day of campaigning Thursday, with an unusually tight three-way contest unfolding in a constituency long regarded as a safe Labour seat.

Fresh polling indicates the Green Party, Reform UK and Labour are effectively tied in what many describe as a “statistical dead heat.”

The survey, conducted by Opinium for Byline Times and Forward Democracy, points to an exceptionally tight contest. Among all respondents, the Greens and Labour are level at 28%, with Reform UK just behind at 27%.

Among those identified as likely to vote, however, the Greens move slightly ahead at 30%, with Labour and Reform UK both at 28%, underlining how finely balanced the contest remains on the eve of polling.

The Green Party’s Hannah Spencer appears to be surging in the Manchester-based Gorton wards, capitalizing on deep-seated frustration among younger voters and Muslim communities over Labour’s national policies.

Conversely, Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin has found significant traction in the Denton and Tameside areas, framing the contest as a direct referendum on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government and the rising cost of living.

For the Labour Party, the stakes could not be higher. Having held this seat for decades, a defeat here would be a catastrophic blow to Starmer’s authority.

The campaign has been plagued by internal friction following the controversial decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing as the candidate.

This move has reportedly alienated local activists and opened the door for tactical voting. Political analysts note that many traditional Labour supporters are now weighing whether to back the Greens to block a Reform UK victory or vice versa.