• EU is 'entrapped in labyrinth,' squeezed by great-power rivalries with no clear way forward, says George Tzogopoulos of the European Institute of Nice

BRUSSELS

Despite repeated calls for "strategic autonomy," there is little indication that the European Union is prepared to depart from Washington's China policy that considers it a systemic rival, even as renewed tensions with the US fuel debate in Brussels, experts say.

Renewed uncertainty over US commitments to Europe following President Donald Trump's return to the White House has intensified debates in Brussels over the EU's global partnerships, particularly in the Asia-Pacific.

While the EU has recently stepped up engagement with countries such as India and Vietnam, analysts say this diversification neither amounts to a strategic pivot toward China, nor does it signal a fundamental shift away from transatlantic ties.

In late January, the EU concluded negotiations on a long-delayed free trade agreement with India dubbed as the "mother of all deals," and also agreed to a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" with Vietnam.

"At this moment, there is no indication that the EU's leadership have the political will to do a rapprochement towards China in response to clashes with the USA," John Irgengioro, a PhD fellow in political science at Ghent University, told Anadolu.

Irgengioro argued that the bloc's recent engagements with Asia-Pacific countries do not indicate "a paradigmatic shift" in the EU's position towards alignment with China, the world second-largest economy.

"There needs to be more fundamental shifts in the EU's overt political positioning before that becomes the case," he added.

In July 2025, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU's approach to relations with China will be "de-risking" rather than "decoupling."

Alignment with Washington persists

While independence has become a recurring theme in EU policy discourse, especially in terms of buying oil and gas from Russia, analysts argue Europe's structural dependence on the US continues to define its foreign and security policy choices, particularly on China.

"The European vision is for the EU to become strategically autonomous but words are different from deeds," said George Tzogopoulos, a senior China expert and lecturer at the European Institute of Nice.

"The EU remains dependent on the USA and this reality perplexes matters irrespective of whether the US president is Republican or Democrat," Tzogopoulos said, adding that the bloc's engagement in the Indo-Pacific largely mirrors US strategic priorities, including efforts to counterbalance China's growing influence.

"The general attitude in Brussels is aligned with the American strategy," he said.

Like the US, the EU also relies on China for most of its supply of rare earths and critical minerals, as mining and exploration of deposits remains underdeveloped, according to a new report by the European Court of Auditors.

And while deciding to phase out energy imports from Russia; as part of a trade deal with Washington that set tariffs at 15%, it agreed to buy $750 billion of US energy by 2028.

Pragmatic engagement without reset

European leaders have nevertheless intensified high-level contacts with China since 2022. French President Emmanuel Macron, former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez have all visited China, while further visits are planned. Keir Starmer also visited Beijing in late January, a first by a British prime minister in eight years.

According to Tzogopoulos, these engagements reflect economic pragmatism rather than a strategic pivot.

"The European trend is not associated with President Trump only but with the acknowledgement of the basic reality that decoupling from China is extremely difficult in a globalized world," he said.

He added that while Trump's return to office has increased pressure on Europe to clarify its strategic priorities, it has not fundamentally altered the EU's China calculus.

"President Trump is pushing Europe to be more serious in doing things but this only functions as an accelerator of the tendency started after China's reopening," he said.

Limits of 'strategic autonomy'

Yet, experts remain skeptical of the EU's ability to pursue "strategic autonomy" in the near term, particularly in security and foreign policy as US involvement in conflicts such as Ukraine remains decisive despite Europe's increasing support.

"Under the EU's current leadership, 'strategic autonomy' is just a slogan that is completely un-rooted in practice. EU countries are currently extremely dependent on the USA economically, politically, and security wise," Irgengioro said.

He added that even a hypothetical EU pivot toward China could expose Brussels to US economic pressure, citing Washington's threats towards Canada, whose prime minister, Mark Carney, recently met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

"It (EU) may find itself paradoxically in a weaker bargaining position vis-à-vis the US than Canada ... Trump’s response to Canada’s pivot to China was to immediately threaten [it] with a 100% tariff. I highly doubt the EU is able to resist such pressure."

Casper Wits, a university lecturer in East Asia Studies at Universiteit Leiden, also highlighted the potential impact on transatlantic relations, noting that a closer EU-China relationship could strain ties with Washington.

"Although you never know with Trump. At the same time, since a real strategic pivot towards China is still very unlikely, corresponding US disagreement with it is as well," he added.

EU caught between powers

According to Tzogopoulos, the US wants the EU to align with its policies on China, and this goal has stayed the same under both Trump and former President Joe Biden, despite differences in their negotiation styles.

Both have wanted "the EU to stick to the American policy and consider China a threat," he said.

As a result, he warned, the EU remains strategically constrained.

"Unfortunately, the EU is currently entrapped in a labyrinth. It is dependent on the USA, it has no clear policy concerning the future outcome of the Ukraine conflict despite the mediation of President Trump, and it lacks a holistic understanding of China. It is thus squeezed in the antagonism of others without clear way forward," he said.