Poland’s population shrinks to 37.28 million as demographic decline accelerates

Poland’s population fell by 155,000 over the past year to 37.28 million at the end of the first quarter of 2026, according to preliminary data published by Statistics Poland (GUS).

The country lost around 51,000 people in the first three months of the year alone, the office said, underscoring persistent negative demographic trends driven by low birth rates and an aging population.

Data from GUS showed approximately 57,500 live births were recorded in the first quarter, broadly unchanged year-on-year. However, the natural population change — the difference between births and deaths — remained sharply negative at around minus 54,500.

Poland has experienced a steady population decline for more than a decade, with the trend accelerating in recent years. Annual losses have intensified since the COVID-19 pandemic, when excess mortality and declining fertility widened the demographic gap.

According to earlier projections by GUS, Poland’s population could shrink by around 6.6 million by 2060, falling to just over 30 million if current trends persist.

Demographers point to several structural factors, including persistently low fertility rates well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, delayed parenthood with the average age of mothers rising, higher mortality among older age groups, and continued emigration, particularly among younger working-age Poles.

Successive governments have attempted to reverse the decline through family support programs, including flagship child benefit schemes such as “500+,” later increased to 800+, but with limited long-term impact on fertility.

Experts warn that financial incentives alone are insufficient, citing broader challenges such as housing costs, labor market insecurity, childcare availability and shifting social norms.

At the same time, Poland’s demographic structure is rapidly changing, with the proportion of people aged 65 and over rising and placing increasing pressure on the pension system, healthcare services and the labor market.

In recent years, inward migration — particularly from Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 — has partially offset population losses. However, statisticians say migration flows remain volatile and cannot fully compensate for structural decline.

GUS data indicates that without sustained immigration and a significant rise in birth rates, Poland will continue to face a shrinking and aging population in the coming decades.