GENEVA

Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global trade, are increasing the cost of humanitarian aid and slowing deliveries worldwide, raising concerns about the sustainability of relief operations.

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) says disruptions to key maritime and air routes are forcing aid agencies to reroute shipments, rely on longer overland transport, and absorb rising costs at a time when funding is declining.

"We are not there yet, but the pressure is definitely increasing," Nikola Jovanovic, IFRC global supply chain coordinator for emergencies, told Anadolu in an interview, responding to whether growing strain on humanitarian operations risks becoming unsustainable.

The pressure stems from rising transport costs, higher fuel prices, longer delivery timelines, and port and airport delays, all compounding financial constraints.

Regional tensions in the Middle East have escalated since Israel and the US launched a joint offensive on Iran on Feb. 28, while Tehran has retaliated with drone and missile attacks across the region and has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic.

According to IFRC data, sea freight costs have increased by around 70%, with spikes of up to 300% on certain routes due to schedule disruptions, rerouting, and port congestion. Reduced sailings from the UAE are also forcing goods to be transported by road to alternative ports such as Jeddah, adding about $5,000 per container.

Air freight has risen by roughly 50-70%, driven by a shift from sea to air transport, limited capacity, and volatile fuel surcharges. Land transport costs have risen by around 20-30%, reflecting rising cross-border trucking costs, border delays, driver shortages, and tightening capacity.

At the same time, humanitarian funding is shrinking, further limiting what aid organizations can deliver under these price hikes.

"The last couple of years, we saw a trend of less and less investment in the humanitarian field," Jovanovic said, noting that under current circumstances, it means every Swiss franc they receive buys less assistance.

"If this trend continues, I'm afraid that sustainability will become a real concern," he stressed.

Delays stretch from hours to weeks

Delivery timelines have expanded significantly, complicating efforts to respond quickly to crises.

When asked about the timeframe of delivery delays, Jovanovic said it is "hard" to be precise about delivery windows, however, he stressed that "what used to be hours today became the days."

In some cases, delays that once took hours now take weeks. He pointed to recent aid shipments routed from Dubai to Cairo for Gaza and Palestine.

It would normally take "a couple of hours," with airlifts, he said, but right now, by road, in combination with the ferry, it takes "10 to 15 days."

These delays are driven by congestion in regional ports, airspace restrictions, and rerouting away from disrupted Gulf routes.

Hard-to-reach communities most exposed

While the disruptions are global, their impact is most severe for already vulnerable populations.

Jovanovic said "the most exposed are the communities in the hard-to-reach areas," regarding who is most at risk due to the impact of the ongoing Middle East war on humanitarian assistance.

"So those are ones in the active conflict zones, the ones that live in the border areas, in remote regions which are dependent on the imported aid."

This includes parts of the Middle East, as well as regions in the Horn of Africa, Central Africa, and landlocked countries in sub-Saharan Africa, that rely heavily on Gulf logistics hubs.

When supply chains are disrupted, these communities are often the first to face delays and reduced volumes of aid, affecting access to food, medical supplies, and other essential assistance.

To adapt, humanitarian organizations are diversifying supply routes and increasing local sourcing.

"At the moment, we are not going to allow any trade-offs or to stop elevating human suffering just because there are disruptions in supply chain," he stressed.

The IFRC is trying "flexible ways," including different routes, rerouting certain goods, and localizing the response as much as they can to overcome these disruptions, according to the global supply chain coordinator.

However, Jovanovic warned that current efforts may not be sustainable if disruptions persist.

"If this trend continues, some of the trade-offs will become inevitable, either with the speed of delivery or the scale of assistance or the geographical coverage," he said.

Toward structural shift in aid logistics

Repeated disruptions are prompting a broader rethink of humanitarian supply chains, with greater emphasis on resilience and localization.

"We are seeing repeated disruptions along the critical global corridors, … they need to be more resilient," Jovanovic said, showing the way for such resilience as regional sourcing, prepositioning, using alternative local suppliers, and local routes.

“This is something that we need to work (on) more in the future and to rely less on the global hubs in Panama, Dubai, Kuala Lumpur, or Singapore," he said, as the last couple of years have shown the need to rely more on localization.

"We do see that this might be a good kickoff for the longer structural shift," he added.

Despite ongoing adaptations, the outlook remains uncertain as humanitarian needs rise and prices hike while funding declines.

"We lost 30 to 60% of donations and the contributions … from the back donors,” Jovanovic said, describing a sharp decline in humanitarian funding -- a trend affecting not only the IFRC but also the entire humanitarian community.

He warned that without renewed global attention, the situation could worsen, saying: "We are coping well for now, but these trends would urgently need to stop."

"I think that humanity today needs to wake up as soon as possible," he said.

Bringing back the "humanitarian imperative" -- the absolute moral obligation to save lives and alleviate human suffering -- is "super important, if not the most important, aspect of the modern life,” Jovanovic added, warning that this moral obligation is now "on the lowest possible point."